I don't think "running out of steam" is the expected failure mode here. We are talking about bulk ordering machines that produce chips that in turn will hit the market in half a decade. That's like adding power plants to the grid that runs the ball pump inflating the ballon. ASML will probably be the last that faces the ripples of the AI bubble going bust.

Even after the AI bubble pops, ASML's machines will be useful. People generally want computers and chips, preferably the fastest an latest-generation ones. The ROI may be lower once the bubble pops, but the machines will earn themselves back eventually.

Once the bubble does pop, ASML will be in trouble, though. It'll take a couple of years for their latest machines to generate as much interest again, so the effects of the market collapse will echo for years after it happens.

Agree, and orders dont mean liquidity, billing, revenue or profits. If it blows nothing of that Will happen.