We're not living in the same universe. Look at capability year-over-year. The asymptotic maximum is wishful thinking. Someone needs to step in before this gets wildly out of control.

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isqueiros 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Someone needs to step in before this gets wildly out of control. This sounds like a paid bot, lmao.

I wonder how much is actual improvements in the model and how much comes from better harnesses. I'd be willing to bet that the combination of better harnesses + the models being trained around agentic workflows (i.e the harnesses) has made it significantly better in many things, but it's hard to find other improvements imo.

	▲	alecst 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You can see the difference between GPT 3, 4, 5, 6 each year. Same with Gemini and Claude. Look at image and text generation. Code generation. Math ability (Navier Stokes, Quasi-Riemann.)

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verdverm 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Year-over-year, yes I would agree with you, but that is not the cycle time of models. And while I share the same hunch as GP, I'm waiting another cycle before putting more confidence behind it.