I thought my father looked like he was a Vietnam draft avoider. I went through a dozen things he did, using a spreadsheet to evaluate the Bayesian evidence. Then I walked through it with Gemini, which did an incredible job. My conclusion was a tally of 12-0 in favor, aggregate odds 4600-1; Gemini added a couple things, tally 10-2-2, aggregate odds 124,000-1. Its commentary along with the patient systematic analysis was a devastating confirmation of my own work. My father's primary motivation was avoiding the Vietnam draft, and that's what shaped our family's history, decisively. These AI's are like steel pliers against hard-shelled crabs, peeling away the defenses of human crabs, inexorably. It's quite terrifying how powerful LLMs can be used like this.

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