If I am an expert at using a hammer, no matter which hammer I buy, I know what the result of swinging it will be. If I am an expert at using an LLM, I have no idea what the actual result is going to be, and that's before considering a model update. Unlike being an expert at a tool like photoshop, where even 10 years of updates still lets me go "I know what is going to happen if I crop this image".

LLMs are not a tool, they are something else.