> So if AI doubles our code writing velocity, then it will make us 5% faster overall.

This tracks with the actual revenue impact of AI adoption:

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/the-formula-for-agenti...

Their very cheerful "high" revenue increase from AI adoption (that few companies in the index manage to achieve) sits at 4.5%. Most of those in the "value generating" minority are seeing sub-1% returns.

Which, of course, is non-zero, real, and all that, and matters when we're talking about a 4-5% increase of a big company's revenue, assuming the expenses are not catching up with that.

Which they absolutely are. The AI is subsidized by venture capital, and the subsidies are drying up (hence OpenAI upcoming funding round). None of the AI companies are profitable (much less self-sustaining), and AI prices are inevitably increasing.