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▲ BoldColdHold 7 hours ago

If this model is not benchmaxxed, I fear it's over for anthropic, openai etc. They are not unique and there will probably be many others with similar models very soon. It'll become a commodity and the price will be driven to the ground.

▲closetheloopdev 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

So far only OpenAI has a model that solved a Millennium Problem, while Opus 5.5 is a star at coding. It's exciting to have many more to join the frontier, but I think the top two labs still have a significant lead over everyone else.

▲becquerel 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I know it's old hat now, because it happened over a week ago, but it's amusing that Millennium Problems are now just benchmarks we use for discussing models.

▲closetheloopdev 3 hours ago | parent [-]

It was not just about models, but also techniques, and mainly the human guts to trust their models and follow through to solve one of the hardest math problems many experts had been musing over for more than 26 years since the million-dollar prizes for these problems were announced. For me, it was an amazing moment to witness indeed!

▲freakynit 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I've been a regular user of muse spark 1.3 ... and I can tell you one thing for sure that this model, muse-spark-1.3 in xhigh mode, is between sol-6-medium and high.

This is already so good that 90% of my work has shifted away from codex to this. So, muse-wonder-full coming near opus 5.5 is kinda expected.

▲sigmar 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Personally, I don't see facebook joining the fray (of fable level models) particularly "needle moving" in the discussion of whether frontier LLMs will be commoditized. Facebook spent hundreds of billions and have better talent than most.

▲minraws 7 hours ago | parent [-]

If you can spend your way to Frontier LLMs even if it's a few hundred Billion that means it's a commodity same as nuclear or electricity or telecom.

This is the entire point here, give it a couple years every nation on the planet with 20-40B in funding would have their own champions with post Fable level performance.

▲petesergeant 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I feel like Grok/xAI or whatever they're calling it was Exhibit A in "it just takes money", although I'd also add "and the organizational willingness to build not buy".

▲ProphetOfParado 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> give it a couple years every nation on the planet with 20-40B

Was this sarcasm?

How many nations on earth have 20-40B for LLM training? At 40.2 B, Spain has the 15th largest military budget in the world. I doubt any nation will spend 40B on gradient descent.

▲tintor 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It is much easier to follow leader closely than to lead yourself.

Like peloton in cycling.

▲wuiww 5 hours ago | parent [-]

I mean this is the case in general.

E.g in f1 you can get very close but difficult to pass unless you have a significant advantage.

▲jcfrei 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

OpenAI has the largest user base on mobile as far as I'm aware. To a lot of standard users AI is still just ChatGPT. They'll be fine as long as they can effectively monetize their free users (same what facebook will soon try with Muse). The only advantage facebook has is that they already have a fully working ad marketplace ready with all major advertisers set up - OpenAI still needs to scale that up.

▲adammarples 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

WhatsApp has 3 times as many users, and as soon as meta turn it into a chat AI app people want to use, it's right there

▲jcfrei 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Meta AI has been accessible inside Whatsapp for a long time. Doesn't seem to have a massively disrupted chatgpt usage. And I have a hunch people want to keep this separated - not use whatsapp for messaging friends and asking AI.

▲bluecalm 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Meta has apps billions of people use every day. If AI included in those is good enough they will just uninstall (or never open again) ChatGPT one. It's not true in the other direction.

▲airstrafer 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Models are a commodity, but I also think it isn't necessarily over for Anthropic or OpenAI. They have opportunities to find different moats.

▲adammarples 5 hours ago | parent [-]

You don't just "find" a moat in business. After all this time and money and first mover advantage, they haven't found a one yet.

▲10xDev 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I doubt anyone thinks coding is going to be their moat in the long run, it is just the easiest to get (paying) users for at the moment. And software being able to write software will always be useful even in other domains. Longer term will be research in other areas where data might become the moat.

▲mbesto 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Muse isn't driving this conclusion - Deepseek and Qwen are.

▲esafak 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Muse Spark 1.3 is very fast and powerful. It's my work horse for open source development. I look forward to trying Wonder, if Opencode Go gets it.

▲enraged_camel 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Fable 5.5 is around the corner, and 'Bel' will be out by end of year as well. We don't know how good they are, but if the improvements from Opus 5 to 5.5 are any indication, I think Meta will be left in the dust again pretty soon.

▲nowittyusername 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Whats gonna happen is that time will compress as more releases happen faster and difference between models will still be significant just at higher time frequencies. I expect in the future continuous releases that span no more then days and maybe even faster. So what will become important is not who is 1st or second place at any given time (which might change often), its who is on average at any given time is 1st or second compared to the competition. So yeah meta sitting second here (if not benchmaxed) doesn't really signal anything if that pattern doesn't persist. The number one consistent lab will be the one that raps the rewards (customer subscriptions and traffic). So yeah I agree with what you stated in a long winded form :P

▲lossolo 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

https://anthropic.com/aug-2026-risk-report

Page 16, Section 1.4, Notes on coverage of unreleased models.

"a noticeable improvement on Mythos 5 for many tasks relevant to internal use but does not display a capability jump"

▲ 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
▲phoghed 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

▲closetheloopdev 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Nearly two weeks since Gemini 4 Argon was announced and I still haven't seen any pelicans from Simon Willison for it. Nobody is currently using it either. What's the point of announcing Gemini 4 and then throwing it into the black hole?

▲bigyabai 7 hours ago | parent [-]

> What's the point of announcing Gemini 4 and then throwing it into the black hole?

Hamstringing any business that wants to reassure investors with a hype/pump cycle before an egregiously unsustainable IPO?

▲closetheloopdev 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm not sure if that does any damage to anyone else's reputation other than Google's.

▲franzcoughka 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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