The forklift market seems to be in the $90-$95 billion / year while the global passenger car market is $2.9 trillion.

This is the problem.

While the frontier labs will always have a market for AI that can do things the other models can't, if the sliver of work that can be done only by the frontier models is narrow enough, then what they spend to train those frontier models may not let them capture all that much extra revenue.

I absolutely think there will be a market for frontier models pushing further and further.

But it's not yet a given whether or not being ahead on capabilities is going to buy them all that much more higher earnings relative to lower tier providers.

If it stays the case that going from local AI to a frontier model makes the difference between 60% and 99%, then they probably will, but there's nothing to suggest local or open model, or second-tier closed models won't keep moving ahead as well, and eat away at the use cases where only a frontier model will do.