Also, part of "seeing the curve go vertical" is that the projects that show those results are rather expensive. If you work at one of the AI companies or certain well funded customer companies then you can pay for the tokens. But, like it would make no sense for me personally to spin up a bunch of agents to try to write a browser or solve math problems.

Down is a perfectly valid direction for a vertical line when not given a ± in the vector.

Considering the investment in AI, the lack of moat, and the increased inability of any of the big players to come even close to profitability (with OpenAI already breaking the "ads" emergency glass option)... perhaps he meant a tiny group is already seeing the line crater

It can be both and it is.

Another caveat: many of that same group seem to have a shared delusion that they’re birthing a super intelligence, and those are the same ones claiming the vertical curve.

I work for a typical software product company, and along with most of my colleagues, I clearly see that the curve is so steep that our software development process has already changed tremendously and will be different next year, and probably completely different in the following years. The revolution is real, undeniable, and the old days are gone. Some companies adapt to changes more slowly, some faster. LLMs, agents and harnesses are just a part of the bigger picture.

I hate to say it but this is cope. I believed this in the past but it's over.

AI models can dismantle billion dollar industries. They can reverse engineer Adobe and Microsoft products that once were their moats and titans of their industry.

Why do you think they'd need to lie?

As someone who has done software verification professionally for many years the last 6 months or so have looked extremely vertical. The robots are better proof authors than I probably ever could be even if I dedicated the rest of my days to the practice, and projects that once would have taken months now take a day or two.