Okay, but as I just put it in another thread (which was in "new" and never made it anywhere near the front page):

All we have to do is assume that things progress in a linear way.

Do you remember GPT-2? It was a bizarre curiosity, but was nevertheless considered a huge advance in late 2019. Practically useless, but interesting.

It grew, and three and a half years later we got GPT-4, which was exceptionally capable on release.

It grew still further, and three and a half years hence we now have GPT-6. This is already more intelligent, more imaginative, more disciplined, and far more erudite than the vast majority of individual humans. If you have an intellectual skill -- if you are, say, a mathematician or a chemist -- GPT-6 also has that skill and is functionally your peer. And then it has many other skills that you lack; if nothing else, it is superhuman in breadth.

Assume a steady rate of progress. In three and a half years, we're going to have something that is genuinely a general superintelligence, and we're probably going to see recursive self-improvement begin to kick in (though subject to physical constraints on compute, etc.)

Now is the time for an RSI start-up, I guess!

Anyway, all you have to do is assume that things don't plateau. They have not plateaued to date; if anything, progress appears to be accelerating, and people are starting to panic that there are no brakes on this thing.

> Do you remember GPT-2?

I recall them saying it was too dangerous to release, funny how they are only saying that again as they look to IPO

"It's better than you, and if it isn't, it's bigger than you."

<< people are starting to panic that there are no brakes on this thing.

There are.. physical limits, as it were, which effectively restrict upper limit, but I hear what you are saying. A lot of the problems thrown at it and issues found in the process only seem to have helped. I feels ages ago when we were arguing 'it is merely a stochastic parrot'.