Right, packfile size is really what matters in the long-term. A tiny change to a file in the short term just adds the whole thing again (compressed), whereas a tiny change in a packfile shouldn't add much at all. Unless you've got very limited disk space, the long-term is the only size that matters.

> whereas a tiny change in a packfile shouldn't add much at all

Well to the extent that git is able to find a suitable delta, which is the difficult part.