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▲ stult an hour ago

There is no model of the market that can remain stably accurate because the market will inevitably incorporate the insights of any model that is accurate until those insights are no longer accurate

▲teravor 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

in order for your model to accomplish that, you would get very rich.

there will also likely always be more. in the limit in order to get an edge your model would start to infer insider information. for example, it's common knowledge by now that satellite imagery is used to measure car numbers in parking lots, that's a proxy for insider information.

so it's not even so much the model as it is the data.

even being able to forecast weather better than publicly available methods can be leveraged to gain a significant edge.

▲majormajor 10 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This assumes that any accurate model will inevitably get big enough to be noticable by the rest of the actors.

▲tylerflick 42 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

AKA the efficient markets hypotheses.

▲zdc1 19 minutes ago | parent [-]

Or, thankfully, for Jane Street: the (eventually) efficient market hypothesis

There's definitely alpha out there, but I wouldn't want to make it my job to look for it