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▲ guy_named_matt 18 hours ago

I think that this specific blog post is an important one for history.

The stunned responses indicate a set of some of humanity's brightest struggling to comprehend the emergence of such an incomprehensibly creative and powerful intelligence.

AI has come for coding.

AI has come for mathematics.

AI will come for everything else if we don't do something NOW.

▲somenameforme 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't really understand these takes if we speak of the long-term. You're speaking of a world where there'd be widespread access to high quality cognitive work for a price approaching $0. The possibilities this would open are endless. We need to ensure that we don't neglect our own personal development, and fall into the sci-fi trope of an ignorant civilization relying on an machine built by their ancestors, but I don't think that's much of a practical concern.

In the short-run I think concern is much more merited because it will obviously cause some instability as the economy settles into a new equilibrium, but that's always the case with any sort of revolutionary technology. And this would almost certainly just be short-term stuff. As the value of one thing goes down, the value of other things would go up, and new things would emerge.

▲thelastgallon 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

AI has to come for politicians, CEOs, executive leadership and management in all kinds of organizations first.

We can find a robot that will play golf instead of CEOs.

AI can generate keynotes and meet with other AI agents, pat itself on the back for success stories and give itself promotions and empire building.

▲customguy 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"a set of some of humanity's brightest struggling to comprehend the emergence of such an incomprehensibly creative and powerful intelligence"

Where do you get this from? There is exactly one comment that even mentions creativity, and none of them speak about intelligence. All seem to agree it's slop.

> To be fair, my first reaction was almost boredom. Yes, the AI has “proved” (really? Are we sure? Can we even understand what is written there?) a bunch of interesting results in my field. Not even a Millennium Problem. Pff. [..] If a paper or thesis is so badly written that I cannot get past the first page without considerable effort, I reject it and ask for a new, readable version. With these AI-generated papers, I feel that we, as a community, are not applying the same standards of quality and rigour. They can simply release multiple 100+ page papers claiming to have solved this or that problem, often with redundant arguments, unclear logical structure, multiple dead ends, and strange or unsettling terminology — in other words, slop.

▲stronglikedan 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> if we don't do something NOW

We are doing something now. We're making it so the AI does it all better, so we don't have to do it anymore. Gotta break a few eggs to make an omelet, but it's going to be a delicious fucking omelet when it's ready. I don't understand why people are pushing back so hard on making the world a better place. I personally can't wait until it's clankers all the way down.

▲wk_end 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Whether you agree or not, if you seriously can’t understand why people might be existentially (or economically!) anxious about the thinking machines, you may have already outsourced too much of your thinking to them.

▲perching_aix 10 hours ago | parent [-]

> you may have already outsourced too much of your thinking to them

i'd think that instead of just giving in and reacting with a cheap insult, highlighting the unreasonable leap in rhetoric might be a bit more persuasive. to be specific:

> I don't understand why people are pushing back so hard on making the world a better place.

"making the world a better place" is not what's receiving the pushback. on the contrary, kind of the whole argument is that the current developments are short sighted, and that they will leave leave the world in a worse place on the long term.

and then one can agree or disagree about that, but at least then we'd not be arguing strawmans anymore, nor approaching increasingly childish insults

▲idiotsecant 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes, the humans who control this system will surely evenly distribute the spoils of this new revolution among the people who have no stake in it. Certainly it will not lead to a kind of hyper-poverty not seen in recent human history where near demigods and subhumans are technically the same species, but only until the AI starts working on genetics.

▲somenameforme 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Who controls anything? That's one reason I'm highly optimistic here. You can already performantly run frontier level models on systems with $1600 tier video cards. A couple of years ago it required supercomputing clusters. At this rate frontier tier models will be running on any plain old computer in a couple of years.

If LLM's reach their potential we're speaking of access to generalizable high quality cognitive labor for something approaching $0, for everybody.

▲dash2 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Competition will drive down prices to zero, so we'll all be demigods.

▲slopinthebag 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

why assume that because LLMs are strong in a narrow set of fields it will be strong in everything? we don't make that assumption about other forms of intelligence. i.e nobody thinks Stockfish is good at product management, and people generally don't think that a genius composer will be equally good at botany.

▲famouswaffles 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

In 1904, Psychologist Charles Spearman noticed something interesting about school children's academic performance. Students who excelled in one subject tended to do well in others even when those subjects appeared quite different. He proposed that a common underlying ability, which he called the general intelligence factor, or g, could explain these correlations. [1]

Today, g is one of the most robust findings in differential psychology. The tendency for different cognitive abilities to correlate positively has been replicated across numerous studies. g typically accounts for around 40 to 60% of the variance in cognitive test performance and is predictive of numerous life outcomes, including educational achievement and occupational performance. [2]

Evidence of g isn't confined to humans either. Studies of mice have identified a general cognitive factor explaining roughly 30 to 40% of the variation in performance across different learning tasks [3]. We have similar results for primates and birds.

To put it simply, intelligence tends to generalize. Humans who tend to have higher verbal skills also tend to have higher spatial skills, better memories, and faster processing speed. Someone with the cognitive ability to become an exceptional chemist might just as easily have become an exceptional mathematician or software engineer. The knowledge and skills required are obviously different, but the underlying cognitive abilities that make someone successful in one intellectually demanding field often transfer to others.

And yes, there is also evidence of g in LLMs [4].

[1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/1412107

[2] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8293439/

[3] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2614349/

[4] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016028962...

▲slopinthebag 6 hours ago | parent [-]

cognitive abilities correlate across a particular set of measured tasks but it's not established that high performance in those tasks generalises to arbitrary domains

theres a difference between having a general capacity to learn, possessing domain-specific expertise, and being able to reliably apply that expertise in the real world.

even in humans, a genius mathematician isn't necessarily an exceptional manager, composer, or biologist. general intelligence might make it easier to acquire those skills but it doesn't substitute for them.

the question isn't whether LLMs exhibit "g" but if the abilities being measured are representative of the broader capabilities we're predicting. that's not something g settles.

▲perching_aix 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

they did not specify LLMs

▲slopinthebag 8 hours ago | parent [-]

they are clearly talking about llms