I wouldn't bet a single dime on that, especially with the advancements in robotics (have you seen the Chinese robots?)

Especially if the timeline is 40 years (as opposed to, say... 4.) I have no doubt AI-assisted robotics development would have solved the plumber and electrician jobs in a decade or two.

I’d say if we have robots that can install AC in any old european building, then we have reached both AGI and AGLabour.

But I’m not sure it will take 40 years. I’m quite sure Astra could figure it out, it’s just too slow and robots are too weak. The speed will improve, and robots may lag shortly thereafter but by not much. I give it 1-2 years for AI, and 5-10 years for robots tops (perhaps even quicker).