Supply is larger than demand for batteries and prices are going down. Demand is larger than supply for natural gas turbines and prices are going up.

But that's just the short term.

More importantly, I believe that manufacturers are more confident in the long term future of demand for batteries so are willing to continue to invest. People are going to be buying electric cars 10 years from now. The demand for gas turbines in 10 years seems a lot more murky.

SpaceX has promised to start making turbines, which would bring their price down. But it's an Elon Musk promise, so how much weight do you put on it?

The market for aircraft engine gas turbines is at least 5x the market for industrial gas turbines. We could eliminate natural gas for electricity overnight and GE would keep spinning. Even if it becomes hard to justify development of land-based gas turbines it will still be possible to repurpose jet engines for this purpose.

(Though I really want to see a fast reactor coupled to a supercritical CO2 or helium brayton cycle turbine!)

I can see it now. Fully self driving humanoids powered by gas turbines.

> But it's an Elon Musk promise, so how much weight do you put on it?

Zero.

And I really mean zero, not a negative value. That is, when Elon Musk promises something, it doesn't mean he won't do it, it means that it is just as likely to do it as if he didn't promise anything.

I don't understand why people listen to him when it comes to predictions, he is as close to a random generator as one can get. Even analyzing his actions come with a lot of uncertainty, though not as much as what he says, some things are too big to hide. Being able to maintain such level of uncertainty is probably part of his success, he is like a poker player no one can read.

Point on Musk's problematic delivery record. But for an extremely complex type of critical equipment, in a market this tight, I don't know if there's any provider you'd want to fully trust to deliver on time.