Expression of tech-faith is not intellectually honest argument.

Where does this "will probably not hold in the very near future" come from? People correctly warn about extrapolating current things onto the future, but then just throw some vague "probabilities" without providing any argument why their "probably" is somehow more grounded than others.

Markov chains garbled text to gpt took decades, gpt stories about unicorns to gpt production systems took a few years, gpt production system to gpt astra producing deterministic lean proofs of longstanding mathematical problems happened even faster. Scepticism to the point of requiring proof appears like an academic pursuit while production systems have already been built and are in the process of being enhanced