Devin's Law: every defense of AI which rests on "it will get better, trust me" is in many ways indistinguishable from 2010s crypto hype or "level 5 self driving is right around the corner"

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usrnm an hour ago | parent [-]

1) Predicting the future is hard, but so far everyone who was saying that it would get better turned out to be right. It is getting better 2) Waymo exists

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devin 12 minutes ago | parent [-]

3) That doesn't mean flying cars will within your lifetime

I don't think anyone is saying it can't or won't get better, but the question is how much better, on what timescale, and are there fundamental parts of the problem which will remain extraordinarily difficult to improve?

The comment I was responding to suggested a guarantee of an "order of magnitude" jump right around the corner. There is no guarantee of this, and if you view doomers as fools for having doubts, then we ought to look upon the folks who are sure of this sort of progress in the same way.

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kulahan 4 minutes ago | parent [-]

Your original comment was about self-driving cars, not flying ones. If you wanted unattainable goalposts you should’ve started with that, not ended with it.

	▲	devin 2 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Waymo does not claim level 5 self-driving, and you don't have a level 4 in your driveway, so I don't think my original claim is unfair anyhow.