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▲ screye an hour ago

Placing my bets here.

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Gaming will undergo the movie industry cycle of 2010-2025.

First, Only AAA (GTA-6) or micro-indie games will make money. mid-budget games will get eaten out. <---2010 Hollywood

Until, people get AAA exhaustion and game creation keeps getting cheaper and cheaper.

Then a single auteur makes a mid-budget game with a recognizable aesthetic, that makes AAA money.

A studio (A-24) realizes that auteur curation is profitable, and builds recognize-able identity.

The studio (A-24) starts churning out reliable hitters, that people buy because of the studio more than the game itself.

AAA stagnates, hires the most recent auteur to make their next AAA game with full control.

If it goes bust, then AAA tries again.

If it goes boom, they pick the next auteur for their next AAA game. <---Hollywood is here in 2026

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▲alexandre_m 10 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think your analysis is on point regarding the gaming market.

You're leaving out the social and mobile games that made astronomical amount of money in early 2010s like Farmville and Candy Crush.

In fact, the 2010–2026 era proved that non-AAA games, smaller mobile studios, and independent developers could achieve higher profit margins than traditional big studio projects.

Moreover, indie game market has never been as strong. AI will accelerate and democratize this trend further, as upfront development costs is reduced.

▲oxfeed65261 44 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What is the transformative auteur-driven film in your analogy?

▲cush 23 minutes ago | parent [-]

Maybe, Everything Everywhere All At Once? I don't know of many

▲volkk an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

i would LOVE to see this happen. we need an A24 of games

▲MK2k an hour ago | parent [-]

Annapurna and Devolver maybe?

▲nekooooo 34 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

you are smoking crack and you don't understand hollywood. i don't think you understand indie games either... what happened is other forms of entertainment ate away at the attention share, and gaming is one of them.

▲throwaway20222 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

Beyond the aggressive reply, I mean you are partially right? In addition to the battle for attention the financial model of windowing was destroyed or collapsed into streaming, changing the types/quality/choices of movies that get made, the nuances of what happens in movies and tv shows (fewer character actors) and many other dynamics including change in financial risk and borrowing costs, which in aggregate had an impact that many could argue was on par with the attention battle. Current trends may be able to shift downward the risk/cost trend as well as unlock new formats which may result in the rise of new producers/inputs.

I think it is a “yes, and…”

Though what do I know.