I wrote something [0] that might answer a bit a few weeks ago. Today's slopdrop certainly is challenging my stubbornness, but everything I've seen so far indicates that these (hugely impressive, world historic) capabilities won't extend past verifiable domains. Math yields especially impressive results because it so broad and deep that essentially no person can know of all of its parts; pretraining and deep search capacity is a huge advantage. Gowers has recently written about these capabilities and gestured [1] toward some human capabilities lacking from the current frontier models, though he isn't convinced they won't develop soon. If you assume we don't get a total mathematical superintelligence (which to me seems already sort of AGI-complete) and only amplify the capabilities we have today, it's not obvious to me that we get takeoff from recursive self-improvement, unless you happen to believe that 1) we can clearly specify what AGI or ASI is 2) all of the requisite ideas are out there and need only be combined and/or optimized.

[0] https://dank.systems/posts/2026-09-15-ai-bear.html

[1] https://gowers.wordpress.com/2026/08/12/what-sort-of-maths-a...

> we can clearly specify what AGI or ASI is

We'll have plenty of time for this, while living off UBI.

> everything I've seen so far indicates that these (hugely impressive, world historic) capabilities won't extend past verifiable domains

But they’re already extending into politics, military, journalism, art, and many other fields that aren’t verifiable in any meaningful sense of the word.