| ▲ | throooooo 2 days ago |
| Like mostly all tech, AI is destined to get cheaper with time. We're still pretty early on and are experiencing a hardware crunch, which will ease eventually. AI doesn't have workers rights, doesn't burn out, doesn't get sick, can be instantly onboarded, etc. The second we can be fully replaced with AI, we will be. Plan accordingly. I'm pursuing FIRE and considering moving into a trade. |
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| ▲ | lelanthran 2 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| > The second we can be fully replaced with AI, we will be. Plan accordingly. I'm pursuing FIRE and considering moving into a trade. Doesn't matter what plans you make, the impact will be across everyone! Moving into a trade won't help, because the supply is doubling while the demand is lowering. Fewer people with money to spend; they'll fix their own damn toilets if the decision comes down to "buy food" or "hire plumber". |
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| ▲ | skeptic_ai 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You forget that once all lose their job will all go into trade. Means there will 1000x more people to compete with into trades, which means race to the fucking bottom and lowest salaries if you can even find job. Good for real estate owners, cheap repairs. But probably won’t get any rent paid because people can’t find jobs. |
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| ▲ | giantg2 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I feel like trades will be impacted too. No reason robots can't do much of it cheaper and faster. They're even 3D printing houses. |
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| ▲ | pkaye 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Trades will be impacted when a lot of people compete for those jobs and their wages go down. | |
| ▲ | kennywinker 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Afaik all the 3d printed houses have been expensive disasters. | | |
| ▲ | pigeons 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | So have the AI built software products. | | | |
| ▲ | DANmode 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Does this include or exclude places like China? | | |
| ▲ | kennywinker 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Idk, has china printed houses successfully? And if there are reports of that can we trust that the information hasn’t been gov altered to make a failure seem like a success? | | |
| ▲ | DANmode a day ago | parent [-] | | You could probably just look at the pictures of all of the structures, and housing developments, and decide for yourself how real they are. But leaving them out of this conversation like it doesn’t even exist is bonkers. | | |
| ▲ | kennywinker a day ago | parent [-] | | I’m not “leaving them out” i literally just don’t know anything about them. And yes i am skeptical as a default on this subject. But still - photos don’t actually tell the whole story. What was the cost? How was the project schedule? Etc. | | |
| ▲ | DANmode 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Hey, we’re all having this conversation ^_^ I was skeptical when they first started doing it 20 years ago. Now, right wrong or indifferent, it’s a known entity there - for a LOT of projects. Enough of them exist now that…I’m skeptical they could find enough stupid people to keep paying for it. I know the government has a hand in a lot, but that only goes so far, for so long… |
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| ▲ | idiotsecant 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | training data for physical tasks like that is much, much harder than just collecting the entire internet. It'll be resistant to AI much longer than knowledge work will be | | |
| ▲ | giantg2 2 days ago | parent [-] | | We already have construction codes. Fitting techs with AR headsets could gather more data. Existing structures won't be the first step due to variences. The best place to implement this is modular building in controlled automated environments. Even if we enhance the current productivity, we will create a problem due labor supply driving down incomes, especially if people are coming from the other jobs affected by AI. | | |
| ▲ | idiotsecant a day ago | parent [-] | | You can barely capture folding laundry using task data, and you're vastly underestimating how much independent decision making the trades do in their regular work. If I'm honest this whole thing reads like someone who's never been exposed to the actual work. |
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| ▲ | gobdovan 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If AI would be that cheap and good, why not open a company and leverage it for yourself? |
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| ▲ | kennywinker 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Doing what? Making something with ai: enjoy your 20,000 competitors. Making something without ai: who can buy it? | | |
| ▲ | sanderjd 2 days ago | parent [-] | | If nobody can buy anything, the ai companies will go out of business too. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Out of business, but not necessarily out of existence. If there is really nothing for humans to do, whoever has control over (not necessarily ownership of) enough robots and AI to directly maintain and grow their collection of robots and AI, has something functionally equivalent to a breeding population of the stuff. (If they can't make more of themselves and humans made the initial batch, then that's a job humans can do so the initial condition has not been reached). None of this helps people figure out how to look after their own interests in the meantime. The rest of society may carry on as today without AI, akin to the Amish if we're lucky (rejecting further developments unless good for us) or like Pol Pot if we're unlucky (reject anything that nerds like because nerds liked AI and everything breaks down). On the other hand, the institutions may simply fail to handle reality, like in the Great Depression. |
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| ▲ | what 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | If AI would be that cheap and good, why would they rent it to you? Or even tell you about it? | | |
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| ▲ | bitwize 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you're not FIRE now, it's too late! Enjoy serfdom! |
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| ▲ | sanderjd 2 days ago | parent [-] | | This doesn't seem consistent with what I'm seeing in the job market at the moment. | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 2 days ago | parent [-] | | A flash before a crash? | | |
| ▲ | sanderjd 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Definitely could be, but I've been waiting for that imminent crash for about 4 years now, so who knows. |
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| ▲ | mestelan 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| What is FIRE here? |
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| ▲ | jcheng 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Financial Independence, Retire Early. It's a whole subculture online, based around the idea that if you can grow your investments to ~25X your annual expenses, you can safely stop working and live off those investments. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2012/05/29/how-much-do-i-nee... In some kind of economic AI apocalypse, though, who knows if the assumptions behind FIRE will hold. |
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