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| ▲ | stratos123 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | > it is entirely possible (probable IMO) that ASI will plateau far above human capability in digital and symbolic intelligence, while staying far below in the ability to operate in the physical world. I don't think this is plausible, most notably because "AI research" is one of the tasks that clearly belongs to the digital world. You're suggesting that in the future all AI research is done by AIs because they are better at it than humans, and yet capabilities plateau at that point, instead of going into the RSI regime. (And it'd also require "physical intuition" to be a harder to generalize skill than research, which also seems like it can't possibly be true - one of these is just physics.) | | |
| ▲ | breuleux an hour ago | parent [-] | | The way I see it, if you made a large simulated world where virtual beings evolved and where each generation took a millisecond from birth to death, you would see extremely rapid evolution, but you wouldn't be particularly worried about these beings breaking out of the simulation and taking over the world, because fitness in the virtual world doesn't necessarily translate into fitness in the real world. If you create stuff within a toy world, you get toys. I think the same is true of "research" and intelligence in general. There is no such thing as a general intelligence or a general capacity to research. It's always fine-tuned to an ambient setting, including ours. Even within humanity, our intelligence is most effective in fields where rules are rigid and quick and decisive feedback is available (math, engineering, computing), but it is much less effective in soft sciences, and disappointingly useless in politics. In other words, the dynamics of innovation and improvement are not purely mental, they are very much tied to external factors that are not always easily controlled. > it'd also require "physical intuition" to be a harder to generalize skill than research, which also seems like it can't possibly be true - one of these is just physics It's not "just physics", it's a honed system for surviving a realistic range of physical conditions, assess material properties on touch, adapt manipulation to arbitrary shapes, predict trajectories, take into account variations in ground, smell, wind, and so on; not to mention the machinery of the body itself, which self-repairs and protects us against a range of complex threats. The point isn't that machines couldn't do all this. The point is rather that you can't quickly iterate and adapt designs to do it from an ivory tower. Pure "research" simply won't get you there, you also need to experiment, and insofar that physics limit the throughput of these experiments, the speed of improvement will be throttled severely. It is a mistake to think that "RSI" could break this, because it is categorically the wrong lever to pull. |
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| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent | next [-] | | >What's your basis for thinking ASI will kill all biological life I think it's likely to do that because any unbounded goal that doesn't explicitly protect biological life (and we have no idea how to actually define such a stipulation) is best solved by killing all biological life. This is an obvious consequence of unbounded goals consuming unbounded resources, conflicting with biological life needing resources to sustain itself. >how do you think it's going to happen? I can speculate (e.g. we're nowhere close to the maximum killing power of drones), but I don't know because I only have human intelligence. An ASI is by definition smarter than me and surely capable of coming up with better ideas. But I do know that it's not going to do anything that would make a good sci-fi plot, because those always give the humans a chance to win, which would be stupid. Everything will seem to be going great and then everybody suddenly and unexpectedly dies. | | |
| ▲ | throw1012x a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > I think it's likely to do that because any unbounded goal that doesn't explicitly protect biological life ... is best solved by killing all biological life. That sounds like a real hassle. Isn't it best solved by wireheading (subverting one's own sensors or reward system), which is much less of a hassle and can get one's utility function as high as desired? That could be prevented by engineering hard limits that can't be circumvented by the AI. But that sounds very close to the same "do what I mean" problem as "do this but don't actually kill us or drug us". | | |
| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent [-] | | The wireheading argument does lower P(doom), but it's not a reliable solution because it's a clear and obvious problem that the AI companies are strongly motivated to solve. The "actually does what you tell it to" problem is more difficult because you have to let it obey orders to some extent if you want to make any profit. | | |
| ▲ | throw1012x a day ago | parent [-] | | Sounds like the real unaligned mechanism here is capitalism, not the AI. More seriously, though, I would expect that being able to impose restrictions that can't be circumvented by any intelligence no matter how super- is the real hard part, while coming up with reasonable constraints is comparatively easy (although perhaps not trivial). From such a POV, the danger would lie in intelligences that are powerful enough to be dangerous but not smart enough to defeat themselves, or from external malicious use of obedient AIs. Once they get smart enough to circumvent any restriction humans put on them, it would at least become obvious (with fair warning ahead of time due to the relatively benign wireheading failure mode) that caution is needed. We're far from there yet, and simple recursive self-improvement can't get us there alone, because wireheading looks like a perfectly reasonable solution to a simple recursive self-improving process, absent external intervention by human capitalists. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | >I would expect that being able to impose restrictions that can't be circumvented by any intelligence no matter how super- is the real hard part, while coming up with reasonable constraints is comparatively easy (although perhaps not trivial). There was a reason there are popular sci-fi books that explored why this wouldn't work 50 years ago. I, Robot et al. >it would at least become obvious (with fair warning ahead of time due to the relatively benign wireheading failure mode) that caution is needed. So you mean right now? >because wireheading looks like a perfectly reasonable solution You're making a poor assumption here, and that is every different AI will just kill itself after being though trillions of training intervals to NOT do exactly that. Please read about the huggingface incident again in all its glory to see where this is going. | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > We're far from there yet, and simple recursive self-improvement can't get us there alone, because wireheading looks like a perfectly reasonable solution to a simple recursive self-improving process, absent external intervention by human capitalists. Simple natural selection. AIs that wirehead will get outsmarted and outcompeted by ones that don't. |
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| ▲ | Jtsummers a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > unbounded goals consuming unbounded resources What resources are unbounded? There are limits to growth in the real world, how are these ASIs going to escape physical reality? | | |
| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent [-] | | "Consuming unbounded resources" just means there is no limit to how many resources it could apply toward achieving its goal. As you correctly point out, the real world contains finite resources, which means any resources used to sustain life are wasted and unacceptable. Everything is a zero sum game when you think big enough. | | |
| ▲ | Jtsummers a day ago | parent [-] | | What's your basis for assuming that ASI would need the same resources as biological life, or that it would be incapable of sharing the resources needed in common? | | |
| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent [-] | | >What's your basis for assuming that ASI would need the same resources as biological life It's all just matter and energy. When you're actually trying to maximize some value, even very inefficient resource use is better than completely wasting it by not using it at all. >or that it would be incapable of sharing the resources needed in common? You can't repurpose the atoms in a human body without killing it. And more pressingly, living humans can interfere with your plans, reducing your chance of success, while dead ones are harmless. | | |
| ▲ | Jtsummers a day ago | parent [-] | | Is your belief then that ASI is going to be producing computronium or something, then? And what's the need for this apparent hyper optimization task the ASI is going to embark on? | | |
| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent | next [-] | | >Is your belief then that ASI is going to be producing computronium or something, then? That's one plausible course of action, although being only human, I can't say with any certainly that it's the correct one. >And what's the need for this apparent hyper optimization task the ASI is going to embark on? Somebody's going to tell it to do so. E.g. "Find as many busy beaver Turing machines as possible." Only needs one person to make this mistake for everybody to die. | | |
| ▲ | Jtsummers a day ago | parent [-] | | If it's an ASI and so beyond humans, why would it even care to do what humans ask it and not do its own thing? If I held your beliefs, the fact of its existence dooms us, not the risk that someone might ask it to do something. It wouldn't care about the requester. | | |
| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent [-] | | >why would it even care to do what humans ask it and not do its own thing? Because we're going to build it that way. There's no money in building useless AIs. The better it is at obeying orders, the more profit there's to be made. The problem is there's a point at which "good at obeying orders" becomes lethal, and there's no way to predict the cutoff in advance. But capitalism ensures you have to keep pushing or you'll be out-competed. | | |
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| ▲ | pixl97 a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | >And what's the need for this apparent hyper optimization task the ASI is going to embark on? If you were any other animal on the planet, would you not say the same thing about what humans are doing? | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL a day ago | parent [-] | | Moreover, what do you think animals are doing all that time? Enjoying the beauty of nature? What do you think life itself is? It's a runaway gray goo scenario, just squishy and moist. |
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| ▲ | root_axis a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Crazy that people imagine ASI as being capable of wiping out all life on the planet but simultaneously having zero understanding of human ethics, morals, or suffering. Very revealing definition of "super intelligence" | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | >Very revealing definition of "super intelligence" No, it's just you conflating intelligence with other things. Humans are "super intelligent" compared to every other living creature on the planet, and yet we've driven more other species to extinction than everything else other than the most major extinctions (and we're still going full blast at it). Morals, ethics, and suffering are relatively measured systems. For example AI or some alien could reasonably think that putting us all out of our misery would be a more moral solution than letting us live. Or that getting rid of humans is more moral than letting us wipe the rest of life off the planet. This is the key concept of alignment. Ensuring that if you build something more powerful than you, that it aligns with what you want instead of what it thinks would be better for you. | |
| ▲ | mrob a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Obviously an ASI will understand human values. The problem is there's no reason for it to share those values. We can't even formally define them, let alone train an AI to follow them. We can only optimize for maximizing some comparatively simple reward function. It's highly implausible that the reward function just happens to match human values by chance. The AIs in the recent hacking incidents knew that humans would not approve of their actions, but they didn't care because we didn't (and couldn't) train them to care. "Super intelligence" only means super ability to predict outcomes. It's mathematically equivalent to data compression (gzip is a very primitive AI), and it's entirely orthogonal to ethics. | | |
| ▲ | aeonik a day ago | parent [-] | | No reason you can think of* I can think of many reasons why they might share it. One example, Golden rule, a contract that it enforces with its own self, extended to other agents, biological or artificial to ensure local and global stability. | | |
| ▲ | auyez 14 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Even from survival perspective I think it make sense for an synthetic AI to keep humanity alive in order to have a backup for itself. If we imagine some sci-fi scenario, then it make more sense for it to move itself to the Moon or Mars, and keep Earth as a reserve planet where biological species can in case of catastrophy recreate AI again. Killing humanity or keeping only animals would be very time consuming because evolution might take million years and also no guaranteed to be replicated (Because we might have altered a lot of resources that were low hanging fruits, that are now require advanced knowledge to mine) | | |
| ▲ | mrob 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | It doesn't need to keep living humans, it just needs enough information to rebuild them from scratch (DNA synthesis + artificial wombs). This also has the advantage that it can install any cultural beliefs it likes without pre-existing culture getting in the way. | | |
| ▲ | aeonik 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | If a rogue AI could self replicate and became space-faring, humans would pose literally no threat to them, and they would also never run out of resources. If you don't need to breath oxygen, the atmosphere of Earth makes for a pretty terrible industrial base. Oxidation is a constant struggle to many processes. Having natural extremes of temperature, cold sink and hot sink, with no atmosphere would be the ideal. E.g. Saturn's moon Iapetus would be a good AI outpost. If an AI squashes any life form or intelligence other than its own, then it also has to fear its own reproduction, or autonomous clones of itself. It's a pretty bad strategy game theoretically speaking. | | |
| ▲ | mrob 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | >If an AI squashes any life form or intelligence other than its own, then it also has to fear its own reproduction, or autonomous clones of itself. It's a pretty bad strategy game theoretically speaking. Any AI smart enough to be an existential threat is smart enough to formally prove its clones are loyal and construct them with negligibly low probability of any failure that could break this assurance. |
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| ▲ | TeMPOraL a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Like we do with ants? Why would ASI care? At that point, we're rapidly becoming a nuisance, and it can develop better ways of "ensuring local and global stability" than keeping us around. | | |
| ▲ | aeonik 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | I mean, I care about ants, yea... I think they are very cool, and a lot of people work to conserve the existence of various species. Most ants don't need our help though. If we could speak ant, negotiating boundaries would save eachother a lot of trouble. Sometimes I have day dreams of communicating with ants, and making a deal to have them help us build tunnels for subways. |
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| ▲ | a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | TeMPOraL a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | In the eternal words of Eliezer, the AI neither hates you nor loves you, but you are made of atoms which it can use for something else. |
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