Reference counting has high runtime overhead, especially atomic reference counting with multiple threads. If you overwrite a pointer, you'd need to also look up and update two counts and do all that in a manner that is effectively atomic -- and that is complex on current hardware. I've heard that Swift programs could have as much as 40% runtime overhead from ARC.

I still think that reference counting is promising though. First because it meshes well with static analysis memory-management techniques such as inference of uniqueness and borrowing -- that can optimise away RC altogether. (and Swift's compiler already does some of that). I have not seen any work that could optimise away tracing GC in a similar way. Second, because I believe that it would be possible to design hardware with object-memory addressing that would performs atomic reference counting with no additional runtime cost.

That is exactly what escape analysis does, granted the way it is done across implementations varies.

Such hardware has been designed in the past, Lisp machines, Ada machines, the famous iAPX 432 Intel's failure.