| ▲ | justmaris a day ago |
| I guess we have the capability to change a lot (from the technology we posess), but what would be the consequences of such impact on the rest of the ecosystem? |
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| ▲ | hannob 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I mean, we eliminated smallpox viruses, and the impact was that humans no longer die from smallpox. We have almost eliminated polio, which has the impact that nobody needs an iron lung any more. We have massively reduced the incidence of a whole range of other pathogens. Are you concerned about that, too? I'd be much more concerned about the changes humans do to our ecosystems that we know cause harm, but aren't stopping (like filling the atmosphere with CO2 and other greenhouse gases) than about changes that would, almost certainly, reduce harm and have only extremely unlikely and hypothetical risks. |
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| ▲ | ttd 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Well, one notable difference between your examples of eliminated pathogens is that there is a food chain built on top of mosquitos. There are plenty of animals that eat both mosquito larvae (ex: tadpoles, some fish) and adults (ex: bats, dragonflies). I don't believe there is a similar food chain built on top of viruses. I agree that many of the risks are hypothetical, but I disagree that we can simply dismiss them. Taking a decent amount of time to understand cause and effect on ecosystems seems like a perfectly prudent thing to me. | | |
| ▲ | boredatoms 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Im curious about the food chain part, what happens to individual viruses over time, do they ‘die’ or degrade somehow? | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Viruses are bundle of DNA with an attitude. Lacking any active metabolism, they just denature with time. | |
| ▲ | korrectional 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | While they don't age like living organisms, their outer protein coating wears away due to temperature and UV light, so like you said they sort of "degrade". |
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| ▲ | 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | We wouldn't have to destroy all mosquitos, though. Only a few species that are carriers of human pathogens. Once they are gone, other, benign mosquitos will occupy their spot, and will be eaten by the same animals as before. | | |
| ▲ | estearum 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Such a vague blanket statement sounds like an article of faith and not an actual informed opinion about the specific species of mosquitos, the animals that eat them, and the fungibility of their food sources. Correct me if I'm wrong though. | | |
| ▲ | IncreasePosts 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The mosquito species in question is native to northern Africa, and is an invasive species pretty much everywhere else in the world, having only arrived 300-400 years ago. | | |
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| ▲ | xienze an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Are you concerned about that, too? Kind of, because every time you stomp out one of Mother Nature's ways to keep the human population in check, you contribute to letting the population exceed carrying capacity, which leads to things like: > changes humans do to our ecosystems that we know cause harm, but aren't stopping | |
| ▲ | Arodex 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | A virus isn't an insect. This comparison is pointless. |
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| ▲ | BurningFrog 26 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| We have a lot of experience in what happens when mosquito species are removed! Mostly because the rich world eradicated a lot of them to stop malaria. Of course, once we were safe we told the rest of the world they had to live (and die) with with malaria, because we had discovered environmentalism. |
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| ▲ | ricogallo 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| few people know that mosquitoes are also pollinators for some plants |
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| ▲ | boxed 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | In this case not significant since we're talking about eradicating an invasive species that isn't the majority population. |
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| ▲ | bpodgursky 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Basically 0, there are only a few species of mosquito that carry disease. Other species fulfill all other ecological roles without spreading horrible diseases. |
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| ▲ | giancarlostoro 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Famous last words... (Edit typo:) Till we find out when its too late that they had a genuine purpose in a very specific ecosystem after we've eradicated them? Growing up my sister got dengue, so I hate mosquitoes, she was fine, I know dengue was no joke, but I always worry we make too many assumptions as humans, only to be proven wrong by nature somehow. | | |
| ▲ | thaumaturgy 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Do you have the same level of concern for all other recently-extinct species, widespread habitat loss, and overall large decline in insect biomass? Or do you reserve most of your concern for just the few species of human disease-carrying mosquito? Kind of a genuine question, because I've observed over the years people popping in to this topic to exclaim deep concern for the potential ecological impacts of intentionally extincting a couple of species -- that most biologists reportedly agree aren't keystone species. Meanwhile, species loss continues to occur globally for a variety of reasons and yet it's still really difficult to get the average person to care very much about that. The psychology here is peculiar and I don't understand it. | | |
| ▲ | constantius 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm much more puzzled by the many retorts to people asking about the unforeseen consequences of eradicating a whole species given how little we know about ecosystems. Many such comments are very dumb, asking 'and how do you feel about viruses, screwworms, etc.?', but since you say this is a genuine question: mosquitoes are numerous and we know that they represent a source of food for many species (bats, birds, other insects). As far as I know, there is genuine debate among scientists about the role that mosquitoes play in their ecosystems. Everyone here has seen species of animals and plants eradicated and then being reintroduced or replaced, when we realise what role they were playing. Again, assuming you're asking in good faith: you're asking why these commenters are so concerned while humanity is eradicating species all the time anyway: these are not the same populations... I'd wager there is a big overlap between those wondering about consequences and those taking action for the planet (not eating animal products, not flying, etc.). Similarly, I'd wager there's overlap between those posting such illogical retorts, and those eating animals at every meal and driving their car daily. I see the same ridiculous retorts in HN debates about the condition of animals. | | |
| ▲ | thaumaturgy 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Okay, but we aren't talking about the eradication of all mosquitos. Approximately 10% of known mosquito species are potential carriers of human disease (https://entomologytoday.org/2022/07/26/less-than-10-percent-...), and discussions about eradication efforts generally revolve around just the Anopheles genus. There's an excellent book on the impact of the mosquito on humanity, and a brief overview of some of that subject here: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/08/05/how-mosquitoes.... These species of mosquito are and have been one of the most significant threats to human health for all of our existence. I don't think argument-from-ignorance should be more convincing here than it would be on any other subject. There is some debate among researchers, sure, but published biologists have been making arguments in favor of eradication for over 20 years (https://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/25/opinion/a-bug-s-death.htm...). If someone is being intellectually honest in objecting to this on the grounds of the fragility of ecosystems, then they must also be an equally loud voice against the use and manufacture of glyphosate. That one chemical alone is already having a far greater impact on insect populations, yet you can buy it at your local hardware stores. So yeah, I genuinely don't understand the reasoning here. It feels like a dumber version of the trolley problem, where a perceived inaction that has far larger negative consequences is preferable to an action with more limited ones -- except in this case, it's not even right to describe our current impacts on ecosystems as "inaction". I suspect that if an article were published tomorrow that found that, through some previously-unknown mechanism, the expected rise in global temperatures over the next 10 years would have a side-effect of killing all mosquito populations, that article wouldn't even make the front page of HN. Nobody much would care, aside from those few recurring voices mourning our future. More cynically, I also suspect that since the worst impacts on human health are occurring in tropical populations, westerners find it much easier to argue in favor of protecting this particular pest. | | |
| ▲ | estearum 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Do you think animals pick their food source based on whether humans have taxonomized them under a similar heading, like "mosquito?" Would an alien species contemplating the eradication of wheat be correct to think "that won't hurt Homo sapiens much, wheat makes up <1% of our taxonomic category 'things that grow in dirt!'? | | |
| ▲ | thaumaturgy 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Again: the effect you're referring to here, food chain collapse, is already occurring, but on much larger and more indiscriminate scales. Meanwhile, there is scant real evidence that Anopheles is a critical component of the food chain. Here's the most fair treatment on the subject that I could find: https://archive.ph/h12qU I've been following this subject since at least Olivia Judson's article was published back in 2003. Over the last 23 years, to the best of my knowledge, nobody has yet made a strong case that Anopheles was a necessary part of the ecosystem. If your alien species were unable to identify wheat as an important food source, one would question how they managed to figure out interstellar travel. The most vocal arguments against are all of the kind we're seeing here: "we don't know what might happen" (a statement of the unintended consequences of science meddling with nature that goes back in fiction to at least Mary Shelley), "we should assume they're necessary" (and yet all other necessary critters seem to be optional), "something needs them, we just don't know what" (in 23 years, biologists have so far identified a single spider that maybe or maybe not depends on them). And these are the arguments that condemn a million people a year to death. I would be easily swayed by evidence of large-scale ecosystem destabilization if Anopheles were eradicated. To date, not only is there no such evidence, but there is some evidence to the contrary (species of mosquito have been introduced to island habitats where they went on to have significant effects on local animal populations). | | |
| ▲ | estearum an hour ago | parent [-] | | Food chain collapse happening elsewhere is a reason not to risk creating more of it. It makes ecosystems more fragile, not less. > If your alien species were unable to identify wheat as an important food source, one would question how they managed to figure out interstellar travel. Per your prior point: we are causing food chain collapse all over the globe. We are not an alien species with a good track record on this. > "we don't know what might happen" (a statement of the unintended consequences of science meddling with nature that goes back in fiction to at least Mary Shelley) Per your prior point: the unintended consequences of science meddling with nature also goes back in reality to the widespread food chain collapse that our science is already unintentionally causing all over the globe. The following two arguments are not ones that I've made, and aren't necessary to justify extreme caution. > And these are the arguments that condemn a million people a year to death. Obviously the people arguing against you believe there's a chance that altering course would be far, far worse than this already-not-good outcome. > I would be easily swayed by evidence of large-scale ecosystem destabilization if Anopheles were eradicated. To date, not only is there no such evidence, but there is some evidence to the contrary (species of mosquito have been introduced to island habitats where they went on to have significant effects on local animal populations). Yes I'm in the same boat as you. But note that this is a fundamentally different position than "other things eat things that humans call 'mosquitos' so it should be fine." | | |
| ▲ | thaumaturgy 34 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Food chain collapse happening elsewhere is a reason not to risk creating more of it. Granted, but also food chain collapse has been happening for a while now and yet Anopheles is still not anything's preferred food source. It really seems to fit the definition of a strictly non-beneficial parasite. > ...science meddling with nature also goes back in reality to the widespread food chain collapse that our science is already unintentionally causing all over the globe. There's a whiff of "science causes bad things" here, which is what I keep hoping isn't the unstated foundation of the pro-mosquito argument. > > And these are the arguments that condemn a million people a year to death. > Obviously the people arguing against you believe there's a chance that altering course would be far, far worse than this already-not-good outcome. I seriously, seriously doubt the people making this argument have thought all that hard about this. The more likely scenario is that the millionish dead per year is happening in other people's countries and therefore it's not thought about at all. I wonder what the factor-of-10 scale would be for the number of Zika-affected births in the US before Americans suddenly became overwhelmingly in favor of eradicating these mosquito species. 100? 1,000? 10,000? Over-under at 10,000, I guess? I don't think I got much in the way of any new insight to how other people think about this, but thanks for the discussion, anyway. |
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| ▲ | giancarlostoro 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don't want any species to go extinct if I can help it, but I also understand that sometimes nature finds a way in some cases. I'm not versed in everything with all these species, but I believe everything has a purpose, look if someone goes all out into mosquitoes and proves they had absolutely no purpose, I'll concede, I just think its worth studying these types of things. For example, some years I fight wasps near my house, then the following year, I'm fighting fire ants. If I don't eradicate one or the other, they show up the next year, every year I fight one or the other, I assume they compete with one another. I wish I could curb stomp both from ever coming back, fire ants make me bust out with sores all over, however, I know me killing them from my lawn / property isn't killing ALL of them. |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In that case, it would be a very niche/small ecosystem if we're don't know about it. OTOH, the benefits of eliminating malaria and dengue are massive to ecosystems we do know about. | | |
| ▲ | giancarlostoro 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | My fear is, what comes out of the woodworks once mosquitoes are gone? Because nature finds a way... Will it be drastically worse? Will we wish we never messed with mosquitoes afterwards? | | |
| ▲ | Joker_vD 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > My fear is, what comes out of the woodworks once mosquitoes are gone? Well, what would come out of the outback once the rabbits are gone? Since we know the state of Australian wildlife before the rabbits, the answer is "nothing". | |
| ▲ | bryanlarsen 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The mosquitoes won't be gone. Just the disease carrying ones. |
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| ▲ | Wowfunhappy 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How do you feel about getting rid of screwworm? | | |
| ▲ | someonebaggy 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | It's already happened. The concern is always about changes from the present state, no matter what the present state is. Once screwworms have already been eradicated from North America, there is concern about the impact of bringing them back. |
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| ▲ | VLM 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | All ecosystems are local, and local eradication has been a thing since the first shovel was invented, and nothing too bad has happened. If there's an abandoned lot and you eradicate the mosquitoes by removing the water filled abandoned car tires, the existing ecosystem does pretty well. In a similar way you can willfully decide to make a livestock pond either a mosquito factory or mosquito free and mosquito free has not resulted in any problems. Local eradication programs have successfully worked for centuries, at least. What makes this story interesting is its very wide ranging and likely very expensive. | | |
| ▲ | estearum 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > we've been doing local eradication for a long time without much visible downside (aside: There are lots of visible downsides to lots of local eradications of lots of things) > this effort is interesting because it's much less local So in other words it's very different from all the success cases you're alluding to? |
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| ▲ | throwawayffffas 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | If the documentary mimic (1997) is to believed we will be looking at 6 foot mosquitos in 3 to 5 years. |
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| ▲ | fwip 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| From memory, mosquitos are a food source for some birds and bats, pollinate some plants, and, most uniquely, help drive wild cattle migration (to keep them from overgrazing areas into barren mud-fields). |
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| ▲ | PunchyHamster 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| we are already wiping out many species, wiping out one that's basically always bad both for humans and other animals is probably net positive |
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| ▲ | estearum 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Completely illogical argument. Our destruction of other parts of an ecosystem makes it more fragile, not less. |
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| ▲ | throwaway-11-1 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
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| ▲ | Fishkins 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | You can be concerned about all of that at the same time. I'm a lifelong vegetarian who had never owned a car, but I'm also wary of attempts to alter existing ecosystems. I don't think it should be out of the question, but it should be approached with extreme caution. | | |
| ▲ | throwaway-11-1 28 minutes ago | parent [-] | | My larger point is we aren’t approaching the vast majority of impacts on the environment with any caution at all. Mosquito eradication has been pretty thoroughly studied |
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