As I see it, price increases will lead to a huge loss of users, the two big companies will go bust, hardware manufacturers will have to slash prices, cancel increased capacity projects, etc.

And users will make do with what their newly bought cheap hardware will run, which I think is going to be more than enough for everyone that doesn't need to solve another millenium problem.

Right the most likely outcome to me is a pop and slow fizzle. Mega capex labs become uneconomic at the prices they need to charge to do more training runs. Non frontier cheap models become good enough at far less cost that people use that.

The use cases LLMs are useful for without lots of RF/fine tuning proves more limited than the expansive views currently held.

We get a generalized productivity boost the way the internet gave us, without any one sector or company being a winner take all of that productivity gain.