Probably not. They aren't paying sustainable prices for their supply chain.

1. Datacenter builders are all up to their eyeballs in debt. The companies serving open weight models are getting their GPUs and power from somewhere, and we can infer that some of that is coming from the new build datacenters. But are those financially sustainable?

2. They are relying on subsidized giveaways of the underlying models by Chinese firms. But it's hard to see how that can be sustainable: it's being done for a reason and that reason is probably not commercial. If and when China stops doing this the open weight serving companies will get steadily less competitive with every passing month as the knowledge in the weights becomes obsolete.

Opinions are my own, etc.

Labs are innovating to bring token prices down. You can already see the focus shifting from frontier intelligence to frontier efficiency. Not to say models aren't improving, but improvement is slowing while token efficiency is increasing rapidly.

Commodified products competing on price does not bode well for valuations.