I am asking you, politely, to give me a realistic doom senario. I am too dumb to connect the dots and will crash into the wall. Please do it for me.

How about https://ai-2027.com/ ? Don't look at the specific years (they are on the extreme low end IMO), but at the story.

If you don't believe in international conflict as a driving scenario, instead think about simple human greed and hubris. Citing myself:

> If AI gets intelligent enough, it will be incredible useful to connect to real world machinery. Think about how much cheaper building houses could be, if all the labor would be close to free. In general, dirt cheap, competent and abundant labor would revolutionize all parts of the economy. People are already trying out near autonomous AI companies today. When AI gets intelligent and cheap enough, no human-led company can compete with AI-led companies. When AI gets competent enough with real world interactions, human blue collar work can't compete. Imagine economic growth not in the single digits, but 80% or 300%. Countries not participating in (reckless) AI growth will quickly be left by the wayside. At this point, we don't even need to allure to military concerns to see how human oversight gets sidelined.

> All of this is only ("only") contingent on sufficiently intelligent and cheap AI. If you don't accept this premise, the rest doesn't follow. (There are multiple arguments, why this could be, but that is another discussion.)

> If you accept the premise, how would AI 'extinct' humanity? With 99%+ of the economy under AI control, the possibilities are endless. And given its enormous GDP, cheap to accomplish. Probably even for a single AI company in the above scenario. Killer drones? Engineered virus? Poisoned water supply? Let your creativity run wild. You just need an entity that is persistent and well-resourced to reach every last human settlement.

> The why is a question about alignment (and out of scope of this comment). As a simple comparison, humans are only mildly aligned with preserving nature. It takes up so much space, protecting it takes an annoying amount of resources, etc.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49624360

Not the parent commenter, however I can get at least this far:

Several bright sparks, decide the Ilands model is a great idea, and launch a bunch of Bots to create a "self sustaining AI civilization".

Bots can find themselves and coordinate, or they can actually find self sustaining methods of token generation. Who knows, they might decide to fight the loneliness epidemic.

We can get to a simulation finding a way to self sustain its funding.

From here, I'd have to apply myself to figure out what the rest of the escalation pathway is, but at least I have managed to gain some bed of compute and funding and lacking oversight.

This is a hypothetical of course, there are probably several ways this can be made tighter and holes that can be identified. We aren't even leaning heavily on human stupidity so far.