| ▲ | pcthrowaway 6 hours ago |
| Trolley problem: - If you allow to trolley to proceed, there's a 50% chance it will run over every human on the planet - But if you flip the switch, it takes the long way around, possibly bankrupting the trolley company. And you have a legal obligation to the shareholders to prevent that from happening at all costs. |
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| ▲ | MichaelDickens 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| That's why it's important that the trolley company was established as a non-profit. And if it does take funding, investors' returns will be capped at 100x. (...wait) |
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| ▲ | simoncion 10 minutes ago | parent [-] | | It's also why even the trolley company's CEO agrees that it's important that -should the board determine that the CEO is fantastically untrustworthy and unethical- the board is able to fire said CEO and replace him with someone that's trustworthy and ethical. (...wait.) |
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| ▲ | austhrow743 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you flip the switch then the trolley still proceeds and there’s still a 50% chance every human on the planet gets run over. You’re just not the one at the wheel. |
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| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | What is appealing about this fatalisitc fallacy? I keep seeing this pop up. Society doesn't allow dangerous companies to operate or exist. Why is this different? Go try to buy a tank and drive it into Manhattan. If we can prohibit that why can't we prohibit irresponsible AI development and deployment? | | |
| ▲ | hnlmorg 11 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Because greed. The examples for the dangers of AI is always comparisons with tools designed to destroy (which is understandable). But the problem with AI is it has the potential to create wealth for investors. Thus those who have the opportunity to change course also have a conflict of interest in making that decision. | |
| ▲ | Hamuko 18 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >Society doesn't allow dangerous companies to operate or exist. Philip Morris International? Monsanto? DuPont? | |
| ▲ | austhrow743 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Wrong person. Im just correcting the other commenters trade off problem. I don’t have a stance on if ai will lead to the destruction of humanity, only that if it does then any one ai company can’t change that by not making new ai advancements themselves. | | |
| ▲ | lukewarm707 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It doesn't matter what others do. You are responsible for your own actions. Democratic societies have expressed a will for people to have inviolable rights, such that you may not appeal at will to the 'greater good/consequences' to harm others. It is a rejection of consequentialism. Anthropic is in error for endorsing this logic. Every big trial reaffirms it since Nuremberg, you are responsible for the act you commit and your intent, and not what would or would not have happened otherwise. Only under authority these ai companies do not have, would someone seriously consider harming the innocent as a lesser evil. If you work for an AI company and you can't work safely, you must stop working. | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It’s that last fatalistic sentence that I am responding to. Why is it persuasive to think if a company can and will build AI that might kill everyone then it’s unavoidable. Soviet bans lots of things. | | |
| ▲ | jrowen 38 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I think the closest analogue here is the nuclear bomb. I do think there was a certain point where it became "inevitable." I don't think society has ever prevented a technology that was known to be within reach from being developed. In this case you don't even need the most powerful state-level actors. Open source capabilities are only a short timespan behind frontier labs. At some point basically every individual will have access from the comfort of their own home. I don't think "just make it illegal" is going to save us, that doesn't make me feel safe anyway. They may try that first because it's easy - create a regulatory body, sign some legislation, problem solved! [george-bush-mission-accomplished.jpg] But at this point I feel like some kind of Battlestar Galactica scenario is most likely - hopefully not quite as existential - but it will take a collective reaction to a traumatic event (a la Hiroshima/Nagasaki). Technical rather than (or in addition to) legal measures will be taken, like network partitioning and hardening. This is everyone's problem whether we like it or not. (I'm not saying this "fatalism" should be used as an excuse by anyone working for any of these companies, it should give them pause that any blood shed would still be squarely on their hands, but as an observer, people are gonna keep pushing until shit hits the fan. [jeff-goldblum-jurassic-park.gif] It's also not really about whether it's "appealing" or not, it's just trying to predict and anticipate different likelihoods...) |
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| ▲ | trhway an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > ai will lead to the destruction of humanity ... any one ai company can’t change that by not making new ai advancements themselves. That is how the BigAI leads the society to the idea of necessity to relax the anti-monopoly laws when it comes to the Big AI - the main goal of all that "AI will kill you all" hysteria. |
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| ▲ | motbus3 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You have a 50/50 chance on being the most profitable company in the world but if you don't, no worries, someone else will pay for that | |
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Society doesn't allow dangerous companies to operate or exist Can you please explain what you mean by this because where I’m standing extremely dangerous companies are (and have been) running the economy Exxon comes primarily to mind | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Are you allowed to open a brothel? Or a murder for hire agency? Or a nuclear bomb manufacturing company? Or a child labor textile factory? Or sell a diesel VW golf sportwagen? Or a vaccine that hasn’t had fda clearance? Or an under capitalized insurance company? Or set up a dental practice without going to dental school? | | |
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes to all of those. In fact many of those are massive markets. Hofs bunny ranch is a famous brothel in NV Booz Allen makes and maintains the nuclear fleet including the Sentinel ICBM Textiles factories are globally known to be industrial slave camps for a non trivial portion of the supply. Even worse for Mica mines. Etc…you can fill out the rest | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Booz Allen actually makes what now? The Sentinel is still in development by Northrop Grumman and there is some program management done by Booz, no? | | |
| ▲ | AndrewKemendo an hour ago | parent [-] | | You’re right on the Sentinel production, I got it confused with the Sentinel Program Management side which is massive also and who I mostly worked with. I was in their offices at some point when that program was getting built out - Very much a Office Space bobs situation. |
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| ▲ | deaux an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The appeal is personal consciencewashing. | |
| ▲ | pmkary 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You dear are the most positive person I have seen in quite some time. With Earth burning in the fire of neofeudalism and unbreathable due to the smell of enshitification of everything, with people who---as a result of shit like Instagram---can no longer hold their attention enough to watch a god damn film, let alone a book; it takes quite some effort to filter the "noise" and only see the good people of corporate planting flowers and rainbows in our world. | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 13 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Society doesn't allow dangerous companies to operate or exist FTFY: Any self-respecting society with competent politicians. The US has neither of that, and it shows everywhere you are looking. > Go try to buy a tank and drive it into Manhattan. If we can prohibit that why can't we prohibit irresponsible AI development and deployment? Because even if you had the tank, you can't make much money with it (unless you're a hitman, that is, but even for these, the payouts are measly). But if you are the surviving AI company in the usual VC playbook of "outcompete everyone else until society is completely and utterly hooked, then squeeze the customers by the balls"? The return on investment is virtually infinite. And that is what sustains the absurd valuations for all the AI companies. |
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| ▲ | 01100011 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Humanity has discovered a way to create a form of intelligence using math. This knowledge is not going back in the box. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | But that math cant run without massive GPU clusters. We don't have to allow openai or anthropic access to those anymore than we have to allow a company to operate nuclear power or a bank. | | |
| ▲ | 01100011 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | So you are contending that individuals cannot run advanced models? What brought you to that conclusion? Secondly, are you contending that progress in model efficiency and hardware just stops at whatever level you think is sufficient to prevent individuals or organizations from acquiring sufficient resources to run advanced models? | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | No. And that’s not necessary for my position. I have 4 Mac studios. I run large models and am building propelcompute.com to let people self manage clusters of their own hardware or combine hardware to run models. It’s not the models that are the problem. It’s that the people building them are shielded from the consequences of what they are building. I would say if you self host a model and it takes down a power grid you are personally liable for the consequences. I believe in broad distribution of AI and advancing its capabilities but not in a manner that socializes the harms and privatizes the gains which is what we have now. | |
| ▲ | daveguy 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think it's more the noise, power consumption, local water consumption, and wholesale theft of creative works. ..."government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth." -Lincoln, Gettysburg Adress Unfortunately for AI, it still is. People still get to decide things at the city, town, village level. |
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| ▲ | trhway 41 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > ...massive GPU clusters. We don't have to allow openai or anthropic access to those anymore if anybody was looking for a good reason for datacenters in space. | |
| ▲ | nradov 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Who is "we"? The GPUs and training algorithms get more efficient all the time. In a few years, creating effective LLMs isn't going to require massive GPU clusters. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | We is society through government via regulation. I don’t think GPUs or training will get that efficient that fast absent a distillation target provided by the easily accessible frontier lab APIs. Further, even if you are right, so what. Is that a reason to just accept bad public policy? That’s like saying, anyone can learn how to make smallpox at home with a basic lab set up so we should just ignore any safety measures. | | |
| ▲ | eddythompson80 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Is that a reason to just accept bad public policy? Not necessarily, but it should probably inform that public policy. I think the problem is no one knows what the public policy should be assuming that scenario is true. Even if you, somehow, regulate away massive GPU cluster training making such future training impossible, existing models are already here. Further already training smaller models for things like images, speech, and other specialties is cheaper than the bigger models. I agree that we need some regulations like everything else, but it’s not clear to me what the right policy should be. I think the European ai act is a fine start, but it’s clearly not enough nor does it necessarily limits the training portion just the application portion. Not to mention that the requirements there can be summarized into something like “you have to be careful, and show evidence you tried to be careful”. | | |
| ▲ | lukan 22 minutes ago | parent [-] | | “you have to be careful, and show evidence you tried to be careful”. That sounds reasonable. If applied to OpenAI and their agents multiple times breaking out of bad secured sandboxes, it should be enough. But limiting the training? There really is china and they have a different approach I suppose. But it is possible to talk with them. |
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| ▲ | nradov 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | What a silly comparison. LLMs have nothing to do with smallpox. Computing always gets cheaper and faster over time. We can argue about the exact rate of improvement but the results are inevitable and uncontrollable. | | |
| ▲ | lukan 33 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Short reminder from the guidelines: 'When disagreeing, reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3." ' Also LLM's have something to do with smallpox as a unrestricted LLM will happily guide any wannabe terrorist in how to make them. |
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| ▲ | Razengan 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > cant run without massive GPU clusters. How far back into the history of computing do people who keep repeating shit like that know about? God. Look at the thing in your fucking hand. Now go back just 20 years and see how things were. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | So we should just yolo speed run this because of Moores law? How about you recognize there is a set of rules outside of tech and we can decide how to define them. Just because models and GPUs will be more advanced in the future doesn’t mean we need to let OpenAI and anthropic establish monopolies on the backs of stolen training data give unfettered access to the internet, the terminal and people’s file system while also allowing them to have limited liability protection behind the corporate veil. That’s a choice. | | |
| ▲ | buriram 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | But who are "we"? The society, the government, the regulator, or the consumer? I don't see any of such entity would solve that problem. The government and regulator are in OpenAI and Anthropic's pocket, and I don't trust them a single bit on coming up with regulations. The consumers don't care; they just need something smart and cheap. And the society doesn't work either: each person is too busy fighting for their own survival rather than changing the system. | |
| ▲ | Razengan 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Just because models and GPUs will be more advanced in the future doesn’t mean we need to let OpenAI and anthropic establish monopolies Exactly, again, look at what COMPUTERS THEMSELVES used to be in the 1960s/1970s. What the "P" in the PC stood for and why it was such a big deal |
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| ▲ | CamelCaseName 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | For anyone else curious: > In 2006, the mobile phone market was dominated by stylish flip phones, early music players, and physical keypads just one year before the iPhone changed the industry | | |
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| ▲ | kingcauchy 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Like farming, engines, computers before it. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | There is lots of knowledge that requires a license to operate commercially. We could just do this. | | |
| ▲ | 01100011 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | So you cede the frontier of human progress to illicit organizations and other nations? | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | So an illicit organization is going to operate a frontier scale data center and do $1b training pulling power from the grid without detection? | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | No, why would that be the consequences of regulation? | |
| ▲ | daveguy 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | These LLMs are not the frontier. They are a tool. A tool that doesn't need to be able to write a sonnet to be useful. | | |
| ▲ | harshitaneja 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | We don't know that. We don't know if this particular kind of tool can do "useful" things without also developing the ability to write a sonnet. And they are absolutely a frontier. I am not suggesting we should continue building them just because they are, there are many technologies which could have been built had we thrown the amount of resources we have here and there is a case to be made for not doing it at the pace we are or if at all. But we can do that without diminishing what exists. | |
| ▲ | 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | intended 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Humanity has discovered ways to ensure that we don’t boil the planet, feed everyone, and get better healthcare to the people in the US. We are very capable of putting good things in a box. We are just incapable of putting profitable things in a box. | |
| ▲ | Loquebantur 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You're making a straw man there. Nobody (weirdly) proposes to forget about nuclear weapons, doesn't mean everybody should have one. When you dream about flying a dragon to work, reality poses e.g. parking issues and insurance mismatch as obstructions. Maybe settle for a bike instead? | | |
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| ▲ | qurren 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Nits: 1. Trolleys actually don't usually have steering wheels. 2. People who actually hit trolley switches are not usually the ones at the driver's seat. |
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| ▲ | m463 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Trolley problem: - if you allow the trolley to proceed, it will kill the human race. - if you flip the switch, it will divert to a passing siding that will avoid the safety group blocking the main track. |
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| ▲ | deaux an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > And you have a legal obligation to the shareholders to prevent that from happening at all costs. No you don't. [0] It's very suspicious that this planted myth always pops up here and manages to become the top comment. There is no trolley problem. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48975048 |
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| ▲ | mvkel 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is a state-sponsored global phenomenon, not a national one |
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| ▲ | motbus3 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Only if you buy the excuse why they are for-profit after years of non-profit. They could only have stopped |
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| ▲ | sodapopcan 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Setting aside my sibling comments dispelling the legality claim, it's still pretty dystopian (I'd like to use a stronger word but I won't) to consider "end human existance or bankrupt the shareholders" as the trolley problem. The answer should be (is) simple. |
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| ▲ | parineum 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > And you have a legal obligation to the shareholders to prevent that from happening at all costs. I can't wait until this meme dies. |
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| ▲ | doawoo 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | What meme? This is how the world works right now. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | But it's not actually a legal requirement. It is simply a economic theory. | |
| ▲ | stackghost 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It’s a perversion of the truth which is that officers or directors of a corporation have a fiduciary duty to the shareholders to act in the interests of those shareholders and not to eg enrich themselves. But that doesn’t mean the duty is to maximize next quarter’s profit. Long term sustainability is also broadly in the interests of shareholders. The duty likewise does not require one to throw ethics and morals out the window. This is why shareholders elect the board of directors, in theory. | |
| ▲ | goatlover 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The world could work differently if people decide it should. | | | |
| ▲ | deaux an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | "legal obligation" is propaganda that wouldn't be out of place on Russian state television. It's made up. The way the world works right now is that effectively everyone uses an Android or Apple smartphone every day. Do you have a legal obligation to do so? No. If I said you did, I'd immediately be called out as spreading lies. |
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| ▲ | bpodgursky 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I honestly would love to understand — is this your mental model of what motivates the labs to move forward? |
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| ▲ | ryhminghistory 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Long dashes are indicators of AI psychosis or bots. Pick which one you are. Yes, that is the labs motivation. Money. I know, shocker. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Only morons are motivated by money that will be earned by destroying the civilization that confers value on that money in the first place. | | |
| ▲ | Ardren 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Well, I'm not going to die. Other's might, but I'll be rich either way. Or: Global warming just means I'll have to sell my beach house for a villa on a hill and leave the AC on a little longer. | |
| ▲ | stkdump 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | But there is also a chance that you get insanely rich and the world isn't destoyed! It's the entire logic of SV and VC. | | |
| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Sounds like they would drown a puppy in a tub to make a buck. Seriously what is the point of money if the world sucks? | | |
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| ▲ | Forgeties79 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I’ve used - for many, many years. As have many others. I am very critical of AI but this is an unfair assumption | | |
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| ▲ | MaxfordAndSons 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| There is no such legal obligation. That's a myth the oligarchs have spread to preclude people from even imagining socially responsible corporations. Sure, you might get fired if you try to put social responsibility or even just long term sustainability of the company above quarterly earnings/growth if your board isn't on board with it. But you won't go to jail. |
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| ▲ | digitaltrees 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This is actually true. The shareholder maximization value thesis can be traced to a single economics paper and was very controversial at the time as it broke from the obligations that companies were typically under to be responsible to uphold in exchange for limited liability protection. Most businesses were structured as partnerships or sole proprietary entires that didn't have limited liability for shareholders and had a broad obligation to shareholders, bondholders, employees and society | |
| ▲ | asadotzler 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You don't need the legal obligation because that's just the way it is. You'd need a legal obligation to change it. The truth stands that typical corporations have only one goal, the maximization of that corporation's ambition which is almost always growth of revenue and profit. This is how it works, regardless of how you all continue arguing the unimportant details. It's almost as if you can keep the real problems hidden away by making a big scene about the meaningless. | | |
| ▲ | deaux an hour ago | parent [-] | | That doesn't matter. The point is that legal obligation absolved of culpability. There is no such legal obligation whatsoever, and so there is culpability. > The truth stands that typical corporations have only one goal "Typical" is the key word here. The typical American of your age probably doomscrolls TikTok. Do you? Do you have a legal obligation to do so? Three completely different things. |
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