Where does 50% come from? It is meaningless if the probability model is not explained.

danielmarkbruce 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It's not meaningless. He said he believes it's 50% likely. It's a remarkably clear statement, and the probililty model is his brain.

▲

0xDEAFBEAD an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

One could also use language like "a decent chance". But research has shown that people translate vague phrases like "a decent chance" into probabilities in inconsistent ways. For an ML researcher who is already used to dealing in next-token probabilities that aren't rigorously determined, just stating a probability estimate directly is very natural.

▲

danielmarkbruce 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It's also a very natural way to speak for anyone who gambles, or deals with financial markets. And the lack of precision makes it very clear it's just based on thinking, not some sophisticated mathematical model.

▲

biophysboy 25 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> But research has shown that people translate vague phrases like "a decent chance" into probabilities in inconsistent ways.

That is not a bad thing. It captures uncertainty, unlike the fake number.

> For an ML researcher who is already used to dealing in next-token probabilities that aren't rigorously determined, just stating a probability estimate directly is very natural.

Exactly, it is a rhetorical device to persuade a technically-inclined audience. It works because it implies that a quantitative model exists. I want a clear, incisive set of mathematical arguments. Otherwise, I’m ignoring predictions as the ramblings of arrogant idiot rich kids.

	▲	danielmarkbruce 19 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Saying 50% likely very clearly implies there is no quantitative model to anyone who deals with probability, predictions, gambling, financial markets, ML/AI and so on. The lack of precision is something to pay attention to. You may decide that the person doesn't know what they are talking about, but that's a very different issue.