I go back and forth on this.

But to pull something from the post:

> If this is the right mental model, you should expect to see:

> An unusual amount of in-house harness building on both the build side and the sell side

Yup.

> Org structures and individual roles being reshaped around their place in the business harness

Not yet, this is the one I am most skeptical about because it's still way too easy for the harness-driven processes I've seen to go off the rails, so it's still very much human SME-driven. However, the number of butts in seats required is going down.

> AI-native startups beating incumbents in domains where the “moat” can be easily harness-ified

In most cases I've seen the "moat" is not easily harness-ified, and increasingly the money and energy seems to be going into getting to the starting line.

> All software a software company uses (on or tied to the core build or sell paths) needing to be headless so the outer harness can run it

Tech companies are definitely doing it, but I don't think this is actually realistic yet for companies whose core competence isn't software. But this feels like a matter of when, not if.

I am watching completely non tech companies using AI to replace entire weeks of work and effort. The customer makes a phone call, and it is AI from the intake to discovery to documents to contract and negotiations to AI delivery to the notary. That work is a week of back and forth replaced with a few agents and $30/month.