| ▲ | ben_w 2 hours ago | |
Yes for now; Alphabet is optimistic costs will come down. They're projecting the learning curve, that the more you do it the cheaper it gets, continues arbitrarily far. However, they recon it will take SpaceX launching 370,000 tons to LEO to make the costs come down enough to be worth it: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2511.19468 Even my bull case put that 10 years off, which is so far away it lacks relevance just because tech moves so much faster than that timescale; my bear case says that's about 45 years off. | ||
| ▲ | hedora 9 minutes ago | parent [-] | |
Even if getting to orbit is free, the numbers don’t work. 5 years is a standard depreciation cycle for hardware, but plenty of machines last longer than that, but these satellites will not. On top of that, power distribution, cooling etc in the data centers is a huge percentage of cost and lasts much longer than 5 years. If you think you can make a space air conditioner for less than a terrestrial one, I have a bridge to sell you. | ||