(2 counter) is impractical because all nodes of git will not replace objects if it thinks it already has it. So any attack has to assume this is the first time the node fetched, which is difficult before trust is established, which is difficult. This is part of the argument Linus originally outlined for this vector, which is that it only works for _very recent_ objects.

(1/3 counter) is not what I argued. I argued from the worst-case position that collision and preimages were theoretically cheap and fast. Even in that case, I feel my arguments hold.

The main issue here is that you assume you can replace an existing object with a replaced one, which you cannot. Not only that, but in all known cases, the sha1dc variant of SHA1 that Git uses will even _tell_ you that someone tried to do this, which singles out the source quickly.