Recursive Self-Improvement isn't instant, it starts slow and accelerates.

It starts with what they already claim to be doing - increasingly relying on existing models in non-trivial work related to training, evaluating and optimizing the next, more capable generation of models. As long as the proportion of work keeps shifting towards agents doing more and more of it, and humans less and less, that's RSI at play.

It may be that it turns out LLMs lack some fundamental level of judgement and it plateaus, but frankly I find this notion absurd; LLMs already show better judgement than most people. The alternative is, at some point LLMs will show the ability to futz their way into improvement of the next generation of models even without humans in the loop - even if much less efficient at first, if generation N+1 is more capable than generation N, it'll either take off or burn out.

you are really just talking out of your ass here, no offense

just because more and more agents are doing human work, that in no way means the model somehow becomes magically more intelligent, it just means the work will stall and continue on at the same level forever

hell even if they hypothetically have an internal model that can output the entire training data set in a better format, there's no scientific evidence that the newer format has new information that is sufficient enough to train a better AI

as a matter of fact the scientific evidence is on the contrary