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▲ Tade0 4 hours ago

I feel like this is overdramatized a bit.

For instance: it's mentioned that EU gas storage is at 67% and Germany's at 56%.

What is not mentioned though is that Poland's storage is at 97% because the previous administration, for better or worse, was paranoid enough to invest in a sizeable marine gas terminal and the current one stocked up early.

Regarding real estate: adjusted for inflation prices peaked 2.5 years ago, interest rates are also much lower than back then. Nobody is buying because all the Ukrainian refugees who were moving to Poland are here already and that's the last bump in population this country will see for the foreseeable future.

Also there's the threat of war on Polish soil, which affects investor sentiment.

▲yzydserd 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Dramatised yes. Overdramatised no. This is a dramatic period of history.

▲ben_w 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Every period of history is dramatic; sometimes I rewatch old episodes of a UK satirical news quiz, Have I Got News For You, and even in the best of years there was plenty of drama.

▲nazgob 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's 97% but total gas storage capacity it quite low so it's easier to fill.

▲Tade0 3 hours ago | parent [-]

True, but other large EU members also did a better job replenishing their stores:

https://energiedashboard.admin.ch/gas/eu-gasspeicher

For instance, Italy has more storage capacity per capita despite very similar consumption (~10TWh/1mln population) and they're already at 86%+.

Meanwhile indeed Poland has much less storage (about a third of Germany per capita), but it also uses it less (half the consumption of Germany per capita).

I must ask: what the hell are the Germans waiting for?

▲rostigerpudel 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Our minister responsible for energy is Katherina Reiche, a lobbyist for fossil companies. She has been suspected to dawdle on refilling gas storage to make it easier for her former employers to make a quick buck when gas becomes scarce in winter. She's also botched the transition to renewable energies by removing the incentives for state and industry to build out electric infrastructure, so it would not be out of character.

Plus, our chancellor has zero experience in governing anything (he's not even been mayor before) and is firmly stuck in thinking like a Blackrock executive.

So, to answer your question: We are waiting for a government that is not entirely in the pocket of those that want to stick to the status quo and profit from crises as long as possible.

▲LeChuck 8 minutes ago | parent [-]

That's a nice conspiracy theory you have there.

Which former employer is going to make a quick buck? The grid operator or the grid operator lobbyist? Besides, who is going to profit from a price spike when the whole point is that the summer-winter spread is inverted, so no one expects to make money from injecting?

▲ben_w 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> I must ask: what the hell are the Germans waiting for?

Bureaucracy, most likely. That and in-fighting (I count NIMBY as an example of that, but not the only thing).

Here's a train station in Berlin, whose upgrade is currently 20 years behind schedule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin-Köpenick_station

▲Germanioum 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Humans are fragile.

Just because the numbers might be small if germany doesn't has enough gas and some old fragile human being might die of this or because they cant afford the gas, its still no way to die in a country like germany.

▲Grimeton 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Life is finite.

▲Germanioum 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes than reduce the strain on the planet by removing yourself from it?

What does your comment add to this discussion?

We should stop caring? You decide how others can live because you are well off?

▲Grimeton 3 hours ago | parent [-]

People not being able to afford gas is nonsense. Germany pays for it.

The other thing is: If a few cold days kill you then your health wasn't much to begin with after all.

Old people die. It's not always a heart attack or a stroke. It's the flu at a high age that gets them.

▲alpineman 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So it's overdramatised on the gas, but underdramatised on the war?

▲Tade0 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The threat of war is largely in the minds of investors.

I don't know if Putin is crazy enough to chance it, but I wouldn't put it past him to do so.

But even then, Russia would need to mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops and that is not something you can pull off in a week, or even a month.

▲kakacik 2 hours ago | parent [-]

They are massively increasing their medium sized drone capacities (ie Geran) while improving on those drones too. Faster, harder to detect and shoot down, no GPS/Glonass navigation necessary so jamming won't do much.

A country that is rained on by 500 drones daily delivering 125KG explosives (so like a proper standard bomb dropped from airplanes) can overwhelm local military defense capacities quickly, leave infrastructure in crumbles (as in no water, electricity, gas, heating, gas stations working and so on) and at least in dictator's mind local population may crumble in weeks. You don't need to put a single foot in the country to reduce critical infra to rubble.

I can't imagine Polish folks would ever bow to russians after horrible things they repeatedly done to them, but ie in Slovakia it would be a very quick victory even if country wouldn't be ruled by ultra corrupt folks who would just give whole country to russians for some more corruption promises for later.

If puttin' will try anything in eastern Europe now is the best time. But I would expect more something along Moldova or baltics, Poland is far from russia and any extra force concentration in Kaliningrad would be easy to see.

▲galangalalgol 32 minutes ago | parent [-]

The baltics have even more vivid memories of soviet life don't they? And nato trip wire troops so any attack would be killing french and uk soldiers (nuclear powers). Trump was talking about taking Greenland by force right up until the trip wire forces arrived. It is an odd job as a soldier to be a hostage I think, but it seems to work. It would be more reliable for Poland to obtain its own nuclear deterrent, along the lines of the buffers vs dependencies argument in the post. There has been talk, but that seems difficult.

▲lifestyleguru 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Real estate in Poland is the only investment option without capital gains tax. You only have to keep it 5 years, extremely simple. A condo is tax free, risk free brokerage account. Even if drones start hitting these mostly empty buildings, the prices will keep rising.

▲altern8 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I guess that's why houses are so expensive, now

▲nojs 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

▲Aeolun 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Germany hasn’t historically been nice about leaving Polish oil to the Polish when they decide they need it though?

▲oblio 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Poland barely had any oil. If you want to go "historical", Romania was the source of oil for Germany during WW2 (and Austria-Hungary also wanted to take over Romanian oil fields in WW1).

▲altern8 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not to be that guy, but I'm pretty sure that "Polish" is capitalized. "polish oil" is what I use on my leather shoes

▲Aeolun 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Thanks xD now I can’t stop thinking about polish oil.

▲oblio an hour ago | parent [-]

The fact that you have time to "xD"-reply to some comments but won't address the other ones basically marks you as a troll. Good to know, shame HN doesn't have ways to block/mark users as ignorable.

▲skrebbel 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Your comment implies Germany can just somehow command Poland to please hand over their gas, which obviously makes no sense, so I think you either forgot to include some key detail or you’re just talking out of your ass.

Unless you mean nazi invasions ofc in which case you’re just a troll.

▲consp 3 hours ago | parent [-]

On the ad absurdum: They'd also go the other way. The integration with the Dutch gas fields and system in Groningen is good enough and there is at least two decades of gas left in the fields. While closed, they can be reopened within a relatively short time and there are storage fields abound there (Groningen and Drente storages account for half the Dutch supply). And since it's ad absurdum, the earthquakes do not matter.