| ▲ | glimshe 5 hours ago |
| Should we blame this on memory companies or the AI companies bidding for memory? How should the memory companies have acted differently? |
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| ▲ | swdev281634 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I think the epic mistake was made by investors and executives who bought tales about imminent super-intelligence about to displace millions of knowledge workers from entire industries replacing them with AI datacentres. These people are the main reason why AI companies have unlimited funding, and can afford to buy global RAM supply for years in the future despite their expenses exceed revenue by billions. |
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| ▲ | amelius 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The main tool to fix this is to forbid companies to sell below cost price. It is part of antitrust law. | | |
| ▲ | SlightlyLeftPad 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | | antitrust law can be a great tool if the government actually uses it for enforcement, which it hasn’t been because it causes parties to lose elections. |
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| ▲ | benced 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You can short them and make a lot of money (to buy RAM with?) if you feel this way and are correct. | | |
| ▲ | BLKNSLVR 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Not having the money to buy a new computer often means not having the money to put where ones mouth is. Can't afford thing? Gamble on stock market instead. Ridiculous argument that already rich people make. | |
| ▲ | demibabs 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | No? Shorting doesn’t only require you to be right. It requires perfectly timing when the market will realize you’re right. | | |
| ▲ | 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | dist-epoch 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You can buy long term put options. | | |
| ▲ | philipov 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | That still requires perfect timing. Getting the timing right on a long-term contract is even harder than with a short-term contract! | | |
| ▲ | Maxatar 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | How does buying long term put options require perfect timing? The whole point of a long term put option is that you only have to be right at some point between when you buy it and when it expires. | | |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | No, put options suffer from time decay and IV crush. A $1,000 MU put for December 2027 was at about $200 today. So if Micron dropped tomorrow, you'd probably start making a bit of money, although the delta is only -0.32. But if you held all the way to December 2027, Micron would then have to drop all the way to $800 before your position is profitable. When and how that transition happens is subject to a number of complex factors, and it's not even necessarily the case that incremental drops in the stock will produce incremental gains for your put option. | | |
| ▲ | Maxatar 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is a really bizare argument for anyone who actually knows about options and trades them. If your thesis is that RAM is in a massive bubble and Micron is going to crash when it bursts, you don't express that thesis by buying a put struck around Micron's current bubble price. The fact that you chose a $1000 strike as your example is weird because that's basically the most expensive way to make the argument you're supposedly making. "IV crush" is an especially strange objection in this context. IV crush matters when you buy options at elevated implied volatility and that volatility collapses. If Micron suddenly drops hundreds of dollars because the alleged bubble is bursting then the implied volatility would sharply rise, which makes your put more valuable, not less. Invoking "IV crush" here mostly makes it sound like you've heard the terminology without thinking through how it actually applies to the scenario you're describing. If you genuinely think Micron is going to collapse sometime over the next two or three years because this entire RAM shortage is an overhyped bubble, then the obvious trade is to buy puts around where you think the stock should return to once that bubble disappears. Micron wasn't remotely a $1000 stock before this run. We can be generous and use a $300 strike since even though that's still 100% higher than Micron's price prior to this run-up, it gets the point across. A long dated $300 put is currently around $7 per share, so one contract costs roughly $700. If Micron eventually falls to $200, that contract is worth $10000 at expiry. At $100, it's worth $20000. If the crash happens well before expiry, it can be worth even more than its intrinsic value because there's still time value left. If you're claiming to be certain that a gigantic bubble is going to burst and wipe hundreds of dollars off the stock price, there are long dated far out of the money puts specifically capable of expressing that position. Pointing at an expensive $1000 strike put and saying "look, options are complicated" is just a weird or rather superficial misunderstanding of some financial concepts. | | |
| ▲ | SpicyLemonZest 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I personally use options for hedging, which I think is generally the responsible purpose of them. It's true that you can get something like a directional bet by going far enough out of the money with strong enough conviction never to exit the position early. But this also exposes you to a lot of risk that it might not pay off even though the original idea was correct. Microsoft crashed in 2000, but it never returned to its pre-1998 price, because there was some real value in the dotcom bubble and they were able to capture a disproportionate fraction of it. | |
| ▲ | philipov 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | None of that helps you get memory now. You're not going to see your payoff for 2-3 years or whenever the bubble bursts. At which point the bubble has burst and you can simply buy ram at a normal price again. And the thesis of this discussion is that we can't buy memory at a reasonable price now, not 3 years from now. This isn't an abstract discussion about the usefulness of options trading or other hedging strategies. You want to pay for ram today by betting on returns years in the future? Risky play! Hope you can stay solvent. |
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| ▲ | dcrazy 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The point of LEAPS is you don’t have to perfect the timing. You buy far enough out to avoid theta decay, and far enough out of the money to minimize risk. | | |
| ▲ | philipov 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Regardless of timing, for shorts to pay out requires the market to actually correct itself. You won't be able to get your magical shorts money until the price of ram goes back down anyway. The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. | | |
| ▲ | dcrazy 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | The price of RAM does not need to come down in order for a way-out-of-the-money January 2027 put on NVDA to increase in value from its current purchase price. | | |
| ▲ | tom_alexander 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | You're suggesting gambling that Nvidia will start to fall within the next 3 months? That sounds like requiring perfect timing to me. | | |
| ▲ | dcrazy 42 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Ack, typo! I meant January 2029. That’s how far out the options chain goes. |
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| ▲ | dragonwriter 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Google (which is diversified more and whose performance is less likely to track AI outcomes closely) aside, the two other members of the AI Big 3 are non-public, so, no, you really can’t. | |
| ▲ | swdev281634 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Can I? Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded. | |
| ▲ | rcxdude 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You can make a lot of money with shorts if you are correct about when the market will move. If you think that the market is overestimating the real value you have not even half of the puzzle. | |
| ▲ | vor_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | With non-public companies? |
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| ▲ | dist-epoch 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The same thing was said 4 years ago about NVIDIA on HN, that it's stock it's outrageously overpriced, given it's $20 bln revenue, that it should have at least 10 times more revenue to justify that stock price, which is fantasy, that there is no plausible way for such demand no matter what you think about GPT-2. | | |
| ▲ | swdev281634 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | nVidia earning is way above zero by a healthy margin. This was also true 4 years ago. How much their shares should cost is debatable but still, nVidia is obviously a profitable business. Anthropic net loss in 2025 was $42 bln, OpenAI $38.5 bln. Both are spending enormous amounts with no obvious path to profitability. | |
| ▲ | elzbardico 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The market can remain irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. |
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| ▲ | CBLT 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'd come at this from a different angle: we still want this to be market system, so we need to make this priced into the market. How can we price this in? I would try to solve this by making the market structure reflect the underlying difficulty: we have to decide what capacity to produce years in advance, to construct the memory fabs. So this should be a futures market, and a capacity crunch would affect short-term-futures, but leave full term futures at the same price. Because the companies supplying the memory can just construct more capacity to fill those futures at the same cost regardless of the AI demand. |
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| ▲ | marcosdumay 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Well, the best way to solve this problem keeping it a market system is if consumers band together and create a fab that will supply them. Since almost everybody is a consumer of those companies, I do suggest we reuse the governance system we have that solves other "everybody problems". | |
| ▲ | paimapi 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | ah yes, adding a futures market to a sector heavily invested in AI certainly won't lead to catastrophic over-speculation that will collapse the industry entire |
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| ▲ | izacus 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > How should the memory companies have acted differently? Same way nVidia did through the crypto insanity - make sure they're supplying enough to the consumer market so it doesn't get completely destroyed and pulls down the other parts of the consumer market they're reliant for long term success. > Should we blame this on memory companies or the AI companies bidding for memory? Blame doesn't change the outcomes, neither does it improve the negative consequences. Think in terms of "what does destruction of our consumer market mean for my prosperity?" not "oh, how do defend poor companies again?" |
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| ▲ | SlightlyLeftPad 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| For one, they could have could have not massively scaled back consumer memory manufacturing as a matter of duty to customers. But money and greed must prevail. |
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| ▲ | Cyan488 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Isn't it the case that public companies owe a primary legal/fiduciary duty to shareholders over customers? The question of choice between a profitable vs unprofitable venture is easy. But yeah, to what extent is choosing profitable instead of VERY profitable a breach of duty to shareholders? | | |
| ▲ | csnover 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | As far as I am aware, the answer to your question is ‘no’[0]. > Contrary to what many believe, U.S. corporate law does not impose any enforceable legal duty on corporate directors or executives of public corporations to maximize profits or share price. The economic case for shareholder-value maximization similarly rests on incorrect factual claims about the structure of corporations, including the mistaken claims that shareholders “own” corporations, that they have the only residual claim on the firm’s profits, and that they are principals who hire and control directors to act as their agents. [0] https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2012/06/26/the-shareholder-v... | | |
| ▲ | Henchman21 an hour ago | parent [-] | | This started long ago, and is one of the best examples of “if you repeat a lie often enough eventually it’ll be widely believed”. It’s a useful tool to manipulate public opinion over a few generations. But no one would ever do such a thing, right? | | |
| ▲ | SlightlyLeftPad 28 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Mm not really. This has been argued so many times on HN. It’s imbued in de facto case law. You’re not going to find it in legislation. Willingly getting sued by hostile shareholders is in itself not acting in the best interest of shareholders so while it’s not in code, it’s buried in many decades of case law and in reality it reflects the maligned incentives for companies. |
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| ▲ | WarmWash 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >Isn't it the case that public companies owe a primary legal/fiduciary duty to shareholders The shareholders own the company. It is their property. They paid for it, they own it, and likewise they can do whatever they want with it. It would be crazy if I proposed you let me drive your car to work everyday. Why? Because you own your car, it's your property, and it works for your own interest. Basically every human agrees with this logic, but somehow "the company is just focused on pleasing shareholders" escapes this. | | |
| ▲ | dcrazy 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is not at all how share ownership works. You don’t have partial title to a corporation by owning shares. | | |
| ▲ | WarmWash 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Shareholders functionally own the company. Yeah you can't stroll inside and take a ream of copy paper because you own a few shares, but the company also cannot be sold (ownership transfered) without you getting paid for your slice. The shareholders, via the board, hold final say over the company, it's direction, and it's alignment...because they own it. |
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| ▲ | torginus 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | This is like asking how many times can a politician can break his word before people vote for the other guy. It's more like voting for public officials. Shareholders can vote to fire a CEO if they feel he's not acting in their best interests no mattter if that's the case or not. | |
| ▲ | izacus 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | No, and I don't know who keeps teaching you that nonsense. | |
| ▲ | elzbardico 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | And what does that mean? Raid your own assets, cut costs manically so you can have a few splendid quarters with stock buyback bonanza or focus on long term value creation, which a lot of times involves giving at least a passing tought to other stakeholders such as client and employees? The getting was great for some time for HP shareholders under Fiorina, or GE shareholders under Welch. Lots of them left the sinking ships at the right moment, but I bet that lot of the others left holding the bag, would have preferred having bought AAPL. | |
| ▲ | micromacrofoot 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | fiduciary duty doesn't mean you always have to do what makes the maximum profit avoiding the destruction of good faith with consumers is a legitimate business interest | | |
| ▲ | SlightlyLeftPad 19 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The overwhelming majority of incentives for executives is and always has been aligned with squeezing more value out of customers, in the form of increased margins, lowest possible costs with the highest prices the market will tolerate. There are a few, I mean very few executives who stand firm on defending good faith toward customer happiness and quality. One of the only things stopping the spiral is competition. That’s why there’s an incentive to consolidate into a few massive conglomerates. | |
| ▲ | pessimizer 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Good faith with customers also has a monetary value, even if it is hard to calculate. This is still maximizing profits. | | |
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| ▲ | micromacrofoot 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| both of them memory companies could have attempted to protect consumers, at least a little, but the AI money machine goes brrrr |
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| ▲ | amelius 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > How should the memory companies have acted differently? Well if your thesis is that they should have acted differently, then we should blame the laissez-faire capitalists. |
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| ▲ | iwontberude 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
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