To put this into perspective, healthcare, real estate and banking each earn ~$1.5T in revenue annually. This is REVENUE, not profit which is obviously lower than the revenue in every industry. I fail to understand how AI can achieve $6T in annual revenue when the TAM for healthcare and banking is a quarter of that in the US.

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dmix 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The article says $6T by 2031 and it's global spending, not just in the US.

> Bain forecasts that annual spending on AI infrastructure might hit $1.5 trillion by 2031.

So maybe in 5yrs it will need enough revenue to cover $1.5T in capex spend globally in a year, investments which as the article mentions is also being supported by governments in "the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the EU, South Korea and the US". ... Or spending growth could lower over the next couple years to be more realistic.

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godbox an hour ago | parent [-]

None of this refutes my point which was that there's no way that the AI industry can, even globally, achieve a $6T TAM. At the very least, I'm confident that it will not happen by 2031. Industries cannot grow that quickly because money can't reach them that quickly.

	▲	dmix 43 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Even China's party-aligned economists are saying that AI investments should be lowered next year and more in line with revenue, since Chinese companies are making much less than even American ones. The obvious trend is investments will come back to earth over the next year or so. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are clearly laying down the PR groundwork to slow down model releases. The value in Bain projecting such a growth over 5yrs is mostly help to communicate this. Not that it's actually going to continue growing exponentially with zero regard for revenue.