> I’ve heard from smart, well-informed people who are confident that AI is a few years away from superintelligence, and that superintelligence will be capable of truly terrifying things. And I’ve heard from smart, well-informed people who are equally confident that LLM-based AI is close to a ceiling, that models like Claude won’t even be able to do impressive work in physics, let alone conquer the world.

This is framed as an "or", as if they're contradictory.

IMO, Both of these statements are true.