Remix.run Logo
▲ bilekas 3 hours ago

I'm no expert, but I've always thought that adding much more risk to the lives of your customers unnecessarily is not good for business.

▲Someone 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

In this market, a better high for less money will attract lots of customers, even if it is less healthy than the alternative.

So, if you’re in the business of selling the somewhat healthier product, and one supplier starts to supply the otherwise superior product, that’s not good for business, either. You will lose customers.

Now, do you accept that, saying “I won’t sell that”, do you fight to outlaw the product (will be hard given at you’re not selling healthy products, either), do you fight the suppliers of the new product (a gang war) or do you add the product to your inventory?

There often isn’t a clear choice; each option has its pros and cons.

▲compass_copium an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Fentanyl is not a better high. It's decidedly less euphoric than traditional opioids. It's just dirt cheap, ridiculously potent so it's easier to traffic, and doesn't have any agricultural footprint. The market pressure for fent is completely on the supply side.

▲bigfishrunning 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"less healthy" is a bit of an understatement; they're not selling cigarettes that will kill you in the long term (or even the medium or short term). Fentanyl will kill you the first time you're exposed to it.

Increasing the potency of some drug with fentanyl is an interesting choice, because by the time the user *knows* how strong it is, there's some likelihood they're already dead.

▲Someone an hour ago | parent [-]

> Fentanyl will kill you the first time you're exposed to it.

Its lethal dose is a lot smaller than that of heroin, but it isn’t guaranteed to kill. If it were, why is it used so much in medicine?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fentanyl: “Fentanyl is a highly potent synthetic opioid of the piperidine family, used primarily as pain medication

[…]

In 2015, 1,600 kilograms (3,500 pounds) were used in healthcare globally.

It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines.”

▲TeMPOraL an hour ago | parent | next [-]

There's always a continuity there ("the dose makes the poison"), there's no known substance that will reliably kill you if you're exposed to a single molecule of it.

The issue with potency is that the more potent a substance, the more precise equipment and quality control you need to stay on the safe side. With fentanyl, healthcare and pharmaceutical industry can handle the precision and QC demands (which includes guarantees and maintaining public trust). Criminal enterprises cannot.

▲RajT88 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Carfentanil has got to be closer to that. It is said to be up to 100x more powerful than fentanyl.

Micrograms (yes still many molecules) could be lethal

▲throwdown7653 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

prions perhaps?

▲prmph 29 minutes ago | parent [-]

Even with prions, there evidence that the body (and probably more so with some people than others) has some level of ability to resist, slow, or sometimes prevent a prion infection.

See these:

- The influence of PRNP polymorphisms on human prion disease susceptibility: an update [1]

- A naturally occurring variant of the human prion protein completely prevents prion disease | Nature [2]

[1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26022925/

[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14510?utm_source=chatg...

▲jan_m_savage an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

is it used in general anesthesia?

for kids?

▲mdp2021 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

You are aware that "pharmaceutical" vs "poison" is a matter of doses and control, right?

That a dose not too different from adult posology of paracetamol can be lethal?

Maybe you did not know that "heroin" was developed at Bayer (the informal name came out of the trials after the reports from the testers)...

Pharmacology is the discipline that deals with drugs.

▲bigfishrunning an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't know about kids, but yes it is used in general anesthesia.

▲throwaway63467 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I guess if you’re the mafia you just murder the competitors. Can’t have stronger regulation than that!

▲ an hour ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
▲mdp2021 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

And: shaking the scene in a way that will attract too much attention, including crackdowns, is very bad for business.

▲scyzoryk_xyz 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Almost like it's not really about "business" at all and something more is going on for all the parties involved

▲joinHNtheysaid 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, internal destabilizing of the oppossition is a tried and well working oractice of inter empire warfare..

▲mdp2021 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Soon after John Stewart Mill we assessed that markets are not perfect.

Accelerations in the different directions of bounded incentives create as-if Brownian motions, - not the stability towards optimality of a perfect organic model.

Or: what you write is rational, but people are easily not... The supply side should disappear from the market when irrational, but changes are slow..

▲UpsideDownRide 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Did we? Because while seemingly obvious nowadays it is not a settled matter in orthodox econ academia.

▲mdp2021 an hour ago | parent [-]

Yes. Everybody here should be or get acquainted with Herbert Simon - he is both "Logic Theory Machine" and "General Problem Solver" and "linked lists", and "bounded rationality" and "satisficing".

Herbert Simon - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_A._Simon

▲TeMPOraL an hour ago | parent [-]

People would benefit from learning some control theory too. A little tinkering with (even abstract) PID controllers can quickly disabuse one of the notion that feedback loops settle instantly.

▲arealaccount 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If its cheap enough to be worth letting a few customers churn, then profits will be positive

▲joinHNtheysaid 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://freesound.org/people/PicassoCT/sounds/848731/

▲philipallstar 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

When there are enough customers, individual customers do not matter.

▲whycome 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Making it up with volume

▲Mistletoe 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Maybe the mafia saw the population curves and realized how precious each customer is now and will be in the future. Something tech companies would be wise to think about...

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/ita/ita...

And the curve is the same across almost all the world. Italy is 1.3, you need 2.1 to even tread water and keep the population you have. Who buys the stocks and fentanyl when each year you have less and less buyers?

▲markus_zhang 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Now we have the unions, we have the gambling - and they're the best things to have - but narcotics is the thing of the future. Now if we don't get a piece of that action, we risk everything we have. I mean, not now, but ten years from now.

▲dgellow 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Might want to look at the cigarette industry

▲mdp2021 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Kills you very late, gives all the time to reap.

Curiously, this is still relevant to my comment nearby about "slow effect models" ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49842956 ).

▲justonceokay 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

When the risk is the benefit things get weird

▲retired 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You just need to keep your customers alive long enough.

70% of food in the supermarket is ultra processed. But as long as people make it to 65 years old they are still good customers. That is still 50 years of sales.

▲TeMPOraL an hour ago | parent [-]

> 70% of food in the supermarket is ultra processed.

Yes. And 70% of Earth atmosphere is nitrogen.

The two figures have about the same relevance to health.

▲nemo44x 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think it’s what customers want though as it gets you higher and closer to that high they’re always chasing. That it can kill you is a marketing feature if anything.

▲petesergeant 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The rest of the economics behind fentanyl are great for drug producers vs heroin though, so it probably doesn't matter?

▲dfxm12 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tell this to junk food manufacturers...

▲SXX 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Junk food dont have a chance to kill a person on first try or high chances to kill them withih a year or so.

▲Lio 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I was going to make a joke about how it depends on how fast you eat it but you're absolutely right.

Tobacco is incredibly damaging but because it doesn't kill you right away we tolerate it.

There's probably a rather grim metric that defines time to death ratio for addictive substances somewhere in a government report.

▲master-lincoln 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I think you are right, but doesn't that mean the consequences of fentanyl do not weigh in on society as badly as junk food? Dead people do not cause extra costs for the rest of society

▲SXX an hour ago | parent [-]

I can understand where is your cynical take comes from, but even from that perspective I would say you're wrong. Having people around who are burden to their families, friends and society is a "good" thing.

When you grow up in a society and see results of gambling, tabacco, alcohol and drug addictions around you that usually deter you from a getting into it. It does not deter everyone, but society actually sees the consequences.

Same with junk food and obesity - when you have people in your family struggle with weight, diabetis and tons of related health issues that's give you more healthy outlook on life.

This is why drugs that kill people fast are so dangerous - because you dont see addicts around you who sttugle to find meaning in life for years because heroine burned their brain. People just start to use and die, fast.

It's not even just about food or drugs. This is how Russia wage a war for 5 years with 400,000 people dead via mercenary army. Society dont see the scale of war because almost no one returns so people keep selling their life for $50,000 thinking its a good way to make money or get rid of debts.

▲thefz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They still traffic heroin though, which is not stellar for customer's life expectancy.

▲be8e9dmrro 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

For big pharma it is great business! Life long debiliating condition, that requires medication to manage... acceptable risk to customers is around 5% yearly mortality rate!

Helthy people do not contribute to big pharma!

▲oefrha 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Oxycontin was built on the idea of turning a drug (MS Contin) for the terminally ill (too small a market) to a lifelong dependency for as many people as possible, and each taking as many milligrams as possible.

▲bluGill 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I know several doctors who mourn the addiction issues with Oxycontin because it was so useful for a lot of cases. Give someone some Oxycontin, then you can address the root problems, and then get them off - works very well... Now they won't give it to anybody - those addicted know exactly what to say to sound like the people who really need it.