The effectiveness of other taxes aside, the argument that billionaires will leave if taxed at a higher rate isn't compelling.

Billionaires are not struggling to meet their expenses. If you raise their taxes, they aren't suddenly unable to afford things. They don't need to change their behavior just to get by. A carbon tax forces average people to drive less, but doesn't affect billionaires at all.

Billionaires live where they want to because they can afford to. They're not going to let themselves be chased from jurisdiction to jurisdiction because of numbers that have zero impact on their daily lives. That's what happens to poor people. If California raises taxes on billionaires, very few will actually leave. They're where they want to be and they can afford to stay there. What's the point of having a really big number in your bank account if you have to move to the middle of nowhere in Alabama to keep it from falling just a little?

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Edit: Yes, some billionaires have changed their tax residency, but not necessarily their physical location. They likely still own properties in California and can likely be found on them rather a lot. This is evasion, in spirit if not law. Taxing land is just one way to make them pay. Others should be pursued as well. The argument that we shouldn't tax billionaires because billionaires are good at not paying taxes is complete hogwash.

The article quite literally states the opposite, showing that almost half of the taxable base left because of the Jan 1, 2026 cutoff.

It may not be logical, but money effectively turns into a scoreboard at a certain point. The ultra-wealthy care whether they show up to the yacht club in a 100m or 150m yacht.

That individuals won’t optimize their wealth beyond $100m, $1b, or really any number just doesn’t square with observable behavior.

The article claims that 6 individually named billionaires already left (presumably recently), and another is likely to leave if he loses his court challenge.

Why move to Alabama, do you know Austin is very good

> the argument that billionaires will leave if taxed at a higher rate isn't compelling

I agree with this. California’s climate and culture will keep many a billionaire within tax nexus reach of the state. Of course, this isn’t a strategy every locale can pursue, but I don’t see a reason for California not to exploit its advantages.

A dozen billionaires already left California.