I will give you that this instance is extreme.

How does being critical of AI directly connect to a spurious association with antifa or any connection to a riot or shooting?

These two categories are different. I agree there is overreach in Sanchez's case however i don't know how one can assume the same will happen to some guy saying "AI bad"

If they were rioting; or connected to a rioting group, that might be different.

a connection to China (that the administration will insist is not spurious) is exactly what they are threatening to use to prosecute and imprison people organizing political campaigns or actions against data centers.