I honestly have no expert knowledge about this stuff. What I say is based only on intuition.

  - China is heavily, heavily incentivised to enhance their own chip making
  - Looking at the rate Chinas has expanded into just about every single other
    space, and from quantity to quality, I just think it is impossible that they
    don't compete on equal grounds pretty soon.
  - I don't buy the insurmountable moat of TSMC

Reminiscent of tank warfare in WW2. The soviet T-34 was not remarkable in any particular way, but the sheer volumes it was produced in made it a very serious enemy to German tanks. As Stalin said "quantity has a quality all of its own".