> LLMs plateau in ability, in which they will start getting ASIC'd.

They don't need to plateu for that to happen. There are companies already building AI on ASIC, and IIRC they were approach 12 months lead time. A 12 months old frontier model (Sonnet 4.5, GPT-5, Kimi K2) for 1% of the price is still a rather good value proposition.

It will be a better value proposition now than it was 12 months ago. It's likely to be better yet in another 12 months. There may be room for a parallel to Moore's Law here.