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BenzeneDream an hour ago

They are already turning profits and inference has shown to be a cash cow. And they've already secured compute for the next several years.

cs702 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Some frontier labs are reporting positive "adjusted EBITDA" (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, with extra adjustments to make the figure positive).

Free cash flow (operating profit less investment), actual cash coming in, is deeply in the red.

EBITDA can be a sensible measure of profitability when there isn't much need for additional investment. That doesn't seem to be the case with these operators. They need to invest aggressively to avoid losing customers to competitors. All of these operators have made multi-year commitments to invest more in infrastructure. In addition, they have guaranteed quite a bit of debt to fund it.

Maybe it all will work out fine (and I sure hope it does!), but I didn't see any hard data from the OP, or from you, supporting that view.

0cf8612b2e1e 25 minutes ago | parent [-]

EBITDA might make sense for the resellers who package up open weight models and sell inference. It is not appropriate for the labs who have billions in debt for RAM, new data centers, gobbling up competitors, etc.

Those real debt obligations are going to want to be paid back.

sanderjd 33 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Definitely. The question is: Is it enough to recoup the enormous capital costs and justify the level of investment they've received. I think there's a decent chance that it will be. But maybe not. And the longer they keep focusing on training new models more so than on inference, the more uncertain I become that it's all going to work out.

metalliqaz an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Who is the "they" that are turning profits?