It’s selling an additional 150k flagship devices. They are selling the Signature line with Google-certified Android by default and those 150k would buy a Pixel to run GrapheneOS otherwise. For smaller OEMs, selling 150k flagships extra yearly is a pretty sizable increase.

Also, the GrapheneOS user base is really growing rapidly, plus I’ve seen quite some people who want to run GrapheneOS, but don’t want to give money to Google, so they might switch when there is a Motorola alternative.

Outside raw user numbers, I think there may be other motivations for Motorola. First, the way they pitched it, the seem to want to position Motorola + GrapheneOS as a secure alternative for business users (so, they may bring in new users themselves). Plus there may be strategic reasons for them to do that. Google has been tightening the grip on Android. Supporting GrapheneOS as an alternative could also be a message to Google - we have an alternative if you tighten the grip too much. Kinda similar to how Samsung has their own App Store, etc. as a message to Google.

> For smaller OEMs, selling 150k flagships extra yearly is a pretty sizable increase.

It is but the cost of making that phone is nearly the same for Samsung and Motorola. You're discounting the fixed costs here.

If it takes $10M to produce a phone, the numbers need to make sense before it makes profit. And you need to have deep pockets to keep doing it until it becomes good.

So yes, 150k in first year might be red, but you must be willing to put up another $10M next year and another .. to slowly get to say $500k in year 5 before it turns profitable. Will Motorola have that appetite? maybe not.