We went from open source Chinese models eating _all_ of frontier labs lunch, to them eating some small extremely niche market of frontier labs.

I don't think this will happen, just as Chinese models did not eat Anthropic/OpenAI's lunch on top tier intelligence. The market is way too niche, and the parties already interested in the capabilities behind safeguards are likely already partnered with Anthropic to get around those with Mythos-class models (see project glasswing for cybersec).