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| ▲ | selectodude a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| Push comes to shove, OpenAI could go out of business tomorrow and I could pick up roughly where I left off for $25k, which is the cost to serve GLM 5.3 Flash on four Nvidia GB10s. Granted, if OpenAI et al go kaput all at the same time, I could probably get a whole lot more compute for a whole lot less money. |
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| ▲ | goosejuice a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Then just go back to what one was doing two years ago? I don't understand this argument. |
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| ▲ | andybak 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'm fairly sure most open weight model providers are serving them at a sustainable price - and I've used them enough to know that I could live with them if the big boys did a rug pull. |
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| ▲ | derac a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If the market crashes they will be much cheaper to run actually, no? Hardware would flood the market. |
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| ▲ | foepys a day ago | parent | next [-] | | I wouldn't bet on hardware flooding the market. I bet the machines running in the data centers don't use traditional PCIe connectors and cards. Maybe somebody could pull the chips and put them on standardized PCIe cards, but that is not a given. | | |
| ▲ | Leynos 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | It happens already. These are plenty of cheap V100s on eBay, and PCIE to SXM2 adapters External example: https://ebay.io/m/lV8UsD Internal example: https://ebay.io/m/z1ygRU V100s are three generations behind current and missing many of the features that modern inference benefits from, but they are the cheapest way to get a 32GB gpu. |
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| ▲ | ssl-3 a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | That should be the outcome, yes. In the event of a crash, the investors who put countless billions into this will be still be seeking to maximize their return. Even if it is just pennies on the dollar. Assets (including compute hardware) will be sold, just as they are also sold when any other business fails. Or maybe a crash doesn't happen. Maybe prices rise to the moon instead and there's nothing we can do to lower them. Or maybe (just maybe!) a crash never happens and there's never a huge price increase. Prices stay low-ish. All of these possible outcomes suggest to me that the maximally-sane option that a user can select, today, is to burn it while it lasts. And then, if/when a crash or a massive price increase occurs, just adjust accordingly. (The rest of us will all be in that same boat, too.) |
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| ▲ | fragmede a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It seems silly to say we have no idea when we actually do, though. We know how much hardware costs, we know how to reliably run a webservice that hits an API hosted on a machine with a GPU, we know how to operate these things at scale outside of OpenAI and Anthropic (not Nvidia). VC money can be patient, Uber's profitable, yeah $1 Uber rides got us hooked and they're running the same playbook. Unfortunately the convenience is worth paying for, so it seems dumb to think we can control the beast or ignore it, or get everyone to agree to hold back. Is there a world where OpenAI starts charging $2,000/month for what we previously were paying $20 for? What are we going to do? AWS could totally jack up the prices for EC2 instances as well, but we've come to rely on that as well. |
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| ▲ | slopinthebag a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| huh? i use the plans because they're cheap and i get strong models, but i could go back to deepseek flash on commodity api pricing and be just fine |
