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| ▲ | devy 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM are NOT the DDR4/5 that consumer markets need. Capacity allocation is leaning more to data center grade HBMs so less to produce dedicated DDR4/5 DRAMs. Supply demand will further drive up the consumer DRAM price! Note, the article mentions NO of new fabs is being constructed (all semiconductor manufacturers know that constructing more fabs means the boom/burst cycle will eventually kill them, so no one create more fabs) Perhaps the federal government need to step in here - the market doesn't fit the issue. |
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| ▲ | tipsytoad 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Plus it takes 3x the wafer capacity for hbm than the same byte capacity in dram, so we’ll likely see the consumer market be decimated here | |
| ▲ | bnjms 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | HBM can be used for GPU though. I wish it was more common. | |
| ▲ | sgt 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Might lower the prices of Mac Minis, Studios etc though | | |
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| ▲ | matja 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Depends on what proportion of Samsung's output is current HBM4 and HBM4E DRAM. Everything in their statement can be true and it be a bad thing for consumers of non-HBM RAM. "HBM capacity to expand to 250,000 wafers a month" So let's say their current HBM capacity is 100k wafers/month (pure speculation/random number for illustration), and their total RAM capacity (including HBM( is 300k wafers/month, then non-HBM capacity reduces from 200k to 50k. |
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| ▲ | gs17 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | And it's worse than that, Micron said that converting capacity to HBM was at a 3:1 ratio, so that 250k HBM could be up to 750k in non-HBM. Fortunately, some of the increase is due to improved processes. | |
| ▲ | EgregiousCube 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Keep in mind that total manufacturing capacity is increasing as well. Perhaps not enough to fully offset, but it's incorrect to assume that supply capacity is flat. | | |
| ▲ | cogman10 an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | It'll take a lot of time. Micron has been working on expanding in Boise since around 2023. They are predicting that the first new chips will start rolling out around 2027. I don't think we'll see any relief until at least 2028 or even later. And even then, probably not without antitrust laws being enforced. Because you know memory manufacturers won't just simply drop prices, they have a long history of price fixing. | |
| ▲ | pixl97 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Question is what does the demand curve for regular ram look like also? If regular production is on a 10% increase curve but a 40% demand curve than we've been at the samw place. |
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| ▲ | mattstir 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Part of the implication is that factories that could be producing consumer-facing DRAM like DDR5 would be retooled to produce HBM instead, leading to even less total consumer RAM production. |
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| ▲ | zargon 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Memory allocated for HBM is memory taken away from DDR production. |
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| ▲ | kenny11 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If Samsung is limited in the number of wafers they can process per month and they use more of those to produce HBM they necessarily have less of them left to make other products, like consumer DRAM. |
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| ▲ | stevefan1999 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Gamma squeezed by the AI business, that's why. The more you add the fuel, the further it will pump up. |
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| ▲ | deagle50 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Presumably DRAM production capacity gets reallocated to HBM, not sure. |
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| ▲ | shevy-java 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Depends on how quickly they are sold. |
