It's not even clear that the actual LLMs have improved. It could be all the non-LLM software (harnesses), the system prompts, the sheer amount of compute hardware, etc. that makes them better. We could be quickly running up against a wall. The complete package of technology that is OpenAI's and Anthropic's products are completely opaque and proprietary. The psychic/con artist communication both from the LLM and the humans like Sam Altman only muddies the water further

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rpdillon 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

People on HN have been claiming that LLMs are going to hit a wall any second now for the past two and a half years.

To reiterate, this is the very beginning of a long series of technological expansions that are going to come out of GenAI. The work is going to go on for decades. All you have to do is look at what happened with the mass-produced automobile, the personal computer, the internet, and mobile phones to see how long the propagation will continue before we settle into a new normal.

	▲	pixl97 13 hours ago \| parent [-]
		LLMs are really so new that the amount of exploration we've done on them is still tiny. It's also a field where a decade of work is being done every year. The vast majority of detractors I've seen always seem to be way way behind the latest models and even farther behind the papers coming out.

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pixl97 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>non-LLM software (harnesses), the system prompts, the sheer amount of compute hardware,

Eh, this is turning into a messy chinese room argument. It is the room or is it the system. In my philosophy the chinese room argument is a non-starter. It's not the room, it's the system. For LLMS this would be like arguing that the output of a single prompt has to be able to answer everything which is nothing close to how human intelligence works. A single human thought is rarely intelligent, it's most often a replay of information it already has. Dialectic processes and loop processes are what tends to push the limits of human intelligence. We reach local maxima with thought alone, and this is boosted by things like writing down the problem and having other humans that may be even less intelligent than you add to the process. In fact this process works with one self by writing and reading ones own thoughts as it's using different subsystems of the mind for introspection.

The idea that LLMs have ran out of steam typically show more of a lack of imagination in the writer than what's occurring in the field.