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Is Jev Confident?(bernoulli.app)
1 points by juskrey 8 hours ago | 2 comments
kantahayashi 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I noticed something odd about Jev. I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. Even though the true probability of face 1 is 1/6, Jev always chose 1 and the probability it returned was around 83%.

juskrey 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

We reverse engineered and analyzed confidence formulas for Jev's Choice and Score. The latter was not obvious at all. In our opinion, neither is confidence.