The only real dumping has happened from Japan, which is fighting to defend the yen, and China, which is obviously repositioning though to a way lesser degree than a nation dumping an adversary’s bonds would.

The story is just another way of saying we’re issuing more debt. Central banks aren’t reducing exposure. They just didn’t increase them with our own finances, which makes sense, our finances don’t increase their reserve requirements.

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iamnothere 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Holdings by France, Taiwan, and India have also decreased year over year. Based on the charts, it could be the start of a reversal, but charts are charts and we’ll just have to see.

Brazil is on a long term downtrend although they may be bottoming out.

Norway just proposed reducing bond holdings in its sovereign fund.

It’s not as clear cut as you’re making it out to be. I think the headline may be overstated, but the article does a reasonable job of making the point.

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JumpCrisscross 10 hours ago | parent [-]

> it could be the start of a reversal, but charts are charts and we’ll just have to see

This is the correct conclusion. Currently, there is no discernable signal. Given American politics, I'd be shocked if we didn't see folks trying to diversify central-bank holdings.

But as long as America runs a trade imbalance, we'll be dumping dollars abroad, and those dollars will work their ways into their countries' banking systems from which they'll work into their central banks, and unless their governments want to strengthen their currency (unlikely for an exporter), they're going to hold those dollars, and if you're holding dollars as an asset, holding the currency type versus the pays-a-yield type is just giving free money to Washington.

> Norway just proposed reducing bond holdings in its sovereign fund

That was explicitly a portfolio-weighting move. They're reducing buying of Treasuries in favour of higher-yielding agency bonds. Their total exposure to U.S. credit isn't being cut. It was just being re-weighted away from Treasuries at a time when they weren't yielding as much as they are now.

	▲	iamnothere 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		All true and good clarification. There is definitely a phase shift happening that is worth paying attention to, but it’s not yet a crisis, and it may not precipitate one.