I'm well aware of how good China is at manufacturing. However, DUV/EUV machine manufacturing is unproven.

What is the timeline like? 1 year? 5 years? 10 years?

They already have working machines, and are slated to ship the first 5 early production ones right about now (before the end of 2026), and are projecting 20 for next year.

Small numbers perhaps, but this is happening right now.

What will the numbers be in 5-10 years time? Who knows, but ASML took about 5 years to go from 20/yr to 100+/yr.

Of course politically the world may well be quite different in 5 years time, as may be the AI market.