> it won't be until a bunch of people die

In the context of rogue misaligned AI won't it be far too late to recover by then? In other words isn't that more or less a doomsday prophecy?

It depends on the cause.

1. The AI chooses, of its own volition, to kill people. It is likely that by the time AI has this level of control and intelligence, it is too late to stop it.

2. A malicious person uses AI to cause a terrorist event or some other kind of catastrophe. This is more likely. The AI in this scenario is more like a tool. Attributing AI to the cause might be difficult, but it's likely that any new bioweapons which emerge in the next 1-2 years are likely developed by AI.

I think we should all hope that 2 happens before 1, but it doesn't feel good to hope for a catastrophe.

I don't think so.

A very large part of the total AI risk in my view comes from selfreplication/physical independence, and that still seems decades away.

But deaths caused directly/indirectly by rogue AI could happen much earlier.